And we are finally to the best evening of the year…
Here is my personal stab at why Wisconsin will win tonight. Whatever happens, we are in store for a smartly coached, highly efficient, and well played final game of the season.
SAM:
These teams already played earlier this year, but these are now different animals. In the last couple weeks, Sam Dekker is finally playing at the level that drooling NBA scouts EXPECTED him to play like all year. When I proclaimed him as my favorite college player before the seasons started, I also expected to see this guy. He is tall, athletic, smart, and has the ability to burn you from long range or on a drive. I think he plays well again and gives Duke to much to handle at another position.
CHARITY:
As in charity stripe. Here is the deal. Duke is a team needing to get to the free throw line. They are playing a team that rates near the top at NOT fouling. Something has to give and it is not like Wisconsin suddenly decides to start fouling irresponsibly. Unless some of the officiating is like Saturday night, Duke will get frustrated in the second half. Another addition to this point would be that Okafor better not PUT Wisconsin kids at the line and get in foul trouble. Not enough depth inside for him to not play full time.
EXPERIENCE:
The young guys from Duke can flat out play. Yes, they have had moments where they needed to keep their head during the season and in conference and NCAA tourneys. All that being said, the cooler, more experienced heads on Wisconsin will be the difference. Wisconsin looks stoic when under the gun, and they will put Duke in a couple situations down the stretch where a Duke kid will make a mistake, whether obvious or subtle. Another great addition to this point is that Wisconsin has TWO prime time PG’s and not a “backup” PG. This was caused by an early season injury, and now both are back healthy. If you are Bo, you could flip a coin between Koenig and Jackson.
ROAD:
Wisconsin has played through a RIDICULOUS path to get to the final game. The last couple of games included a North Carolina squad that outmatched them athletically, an Arizona team that could say the same but also had shooters, and what was thought to be the most unstoppable team people had ever seen in the last 30-40 years. They trailed in all of their games and have survived crunch time in every case. The only point you could make to even come close to countering this logic is that they might be tired. They will be fine. Sleep when you are dead, kids.
DUE:
Bo Ryan has gotten close several times. This is one of his more solid squads top to bottom. Frank Kaminsky staying in school to ride his moped more and live with a bunch of teammates was storybook. Bo Ryan is getting on the old side. I could go on and on. Wisconsin DESERVES a title at some point, and you get the feeling this is the team to do it. They are DUE and it is THEIR turn.
Enjoy the game. Wisconsin wins this 75-73 in a thriller.
AND…just in case you were curious…UVA will be stellar next year as Lost Lettermen agrees with me.
http://www.lostlettermen.com/slideshow/2015-16-college-basketball-top-25