Chaos Followed By Normalcy…
These aren’t the answers obviously, as I feel that more college basketball knowledge actually hurts me most of the years. But, I watch enough college hoops during the year that I wanted to put it in a public forum, so I can be teased mercilessly publicly. For the record, I pick ONE bracket.
Some points I always think about as I filled out my bracket each year:
NIL: It has changed the landscape. Kids are now staying in school longer, and therefore good teams are somewhat more experienced teams. The cream will rise to the top. There WILL be a lot of early upsets as usual, but the art of brackets is choosing WHICH top seeds will take care of business. The Kentucky’s of the world from a decade ago, when every starter was going pro the next year, are gone.
-COACHING: Remember this. I advanced Alabama based on shear talent, but Houston, Auburn, and St. John’s advance in mine because of coaching and experience. Kelvin Sampson, Bruce Pearl, and Rick Pitino will adjust round to round and their kids will LISTEN. God forbid if you are a team they play first or after a couple of days break. If in doubt, look at the coach and how long they have had to prepare. Once there, a new coach will have a “learning experience.” When a coach is a first-timer in the Final Four, they rarely win it (hint about Florida).
GUARD PLAY: I feel like you need strong guard play. At some point, you will need ball handling and the ability to beat the press. You need guards who don’t turn the ball over. Heck, I advanced Bama simply because you can trust Mark Sears for all 40 minutes.
FREE THROW SHOOTING: I worry about my St. John’s pick in this category, but the rest of my teams fall into this category. As a team, you need to be able to make shots from the charity stripe. There WILL be close games, unless you are UCONN from last year. More importantly, you need one or two ringers from the line that can be on the floor at the end of the game. This is a under the radar category you should check out if in the gray area on a round’s pick.
LOCATION: I don’t know why more brackets don’t show the location of each game. I personally looked these up. It doesn’t dictate the winner for me, but it will dictate a lean if I think the crowd will be for one side. For example, Oregon, is playing in Seattle in its first round. I liked Liberty as an upset pick skill-wise, but went against that thought because of the home fans. I also thought long and hard about Louisville bouncing Auburn, but decided the crowd in Lexington didn’t outweigh the fact that Louisville is still a year or two away as far as horses. Once I got to the Final Four, this was the easiest time I have had in quite a while picking the actual overall winner. The Final Four is in TX, and Kelvin Sampson has been there before (for experience lol).
DRAW: I don’t let this change my picks too much, but it IS a factor. Plus, you can’t predict the upsets that “pave the road.” That is a direct shot at 2024 NC State last year. But, teams like Michigan State, Florida, Bama, and Houston DO seem to have an easier road than others.
DEPTH: Games will be officiated differently round by round. Games might go into OT. Does a team have depth if they lose someone to fouls, injury, etc.? You don’t have to go 10 deep like Michigan State, but you need a couple of dudes on the pine who can be next man up.
EYE TEST: I couldn’t get by the fact that Auburn and Houston impressed me the most when I watched them, for the most amount of games, throughout the season. They are pretty solid teams where one weakness can’t be exploited. St. John’s and Bama can overwhelm an opponent in seconds, and have a lot of interchangeable parts on each squad.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: Auburn had a ridiculous record in Quad 1 games, and Houston’s out of conference schedule was tough. Both beat some real good teams, sometimes badly. When going through the bracket, the SEC was the toughest conference, and the ACC is not the ACC of yesteryear. Getting tested on a regular basis halts the nervousness that will happen with youngsters who haven’t been tested all season long.
INJURIES: I penalized Duke because A) I hate them (don’t worry, I would never eliminate a team JUST because of hate) and B) Flagg’s injury causes concern for the bigger picture. Also, Duke is WAY young for the experienced teams they will be facing. But, oddly, I am overlooking Grant Nelson’s mild injury a little and giving Bama a pass on that (but I like their draw a lot). But, check injuries. There are a couple out there that are concerning. None except Flagg’s are an obvious ceiling changer though.
SHOOTING: I didn’t advance Michigan State one more step (although I wanted to because I love Izzo) because of their lack of three-point shooting efficiency. Sure, the stats might not be the real truth, and I love their balance, but when they stall, they STALL. I feel like St. John’s isn’t statistically advanced in this regard, but they make TIMELY shots. I love Houston’s new sniping ability combined with their old school defensive prowess. Bama has a few guys who can shoot from the logo.
NO UVA: Picking brackets over the last decade has been tough for me, because UVA was good. They aren’t in the tourney this year. One less asterisk to worry about. No Bracket 1, and Bracket 1A.
FLORIDA: I noted Florida as my pre-tourney pick back in December. Now, that bandwagon is way beyond full. Do I doubt their chances to win it all? No. Did I suddenly stop thinking they were a force? No. Do I think they have the least amount of weaknesses? Yes. Did the sudden love for them possibly move my needle to Houston? Possibly. And the coach thing I noted above. Kelvin was so close last year. I won’t be surprised if Florida wins it all, but will enjoy the slightly smaller group of folks that will be with me on Houston should that not pan out.
Overall, as I mention in the title, I think we get a good degree of early madness. I picked a few. I even have UC San Diego, North Carolina, and Colorado State in my Sweet Sixteen. Then, as the rounds go by, I think the surprise teams will be less than past years. The better teams are better aged, the good teams have experienced coaches, and I think the cream rises to the top by the time the Elite 8 rolls around. This might be like 2008 in San Antonio, where all four #1 seeds advance. As far as teams outside of the top couple of seeds, I think Texas Tech could win it all, I think North Carolina could make a Final Four run, I think Arizona is dangerous, and I think Arkansas is no one anyone is excited to play. I think the South and West have the best chance at bedlam, and I think the East and Midwest will mostly be pretty level. I love Drake like most people, but hate their second round draw. All of the below are wrong picks based on a high degree of hoops knowledge, and my sharpie will be ready to “x” all of my losses…like the people who chose their bracket based on mascot animals and team colors.
Good luck to all tomorrow!
(You should have seen all of the crossed-out stuff on the ORIGINAL version…)
