Double whammy. I was writing the Catch of the Day AS Mr. Royal sent me his NFL picks. Enjoy.
NFL Week 9 Preview (and mid-season review): The Depahted
Side Note to the Fillerbuster: Thanks for screwing me over and cursing my Colts pick with YOUR side note. Happy for your Steelers though, bud.
The first few weeks of the NFL Season were really weird:
– The Saints, Steelers, and Patriots looked awful
– Almost every first-round fantasy RB looked like a bust (except Beast Mode): Ray Rice (in last year’s top-3 overall), AP, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Lesean McCoy
– The Cowboys looked unstoppable
– And it looked like the new interpretation of defensive rules would change pass defense forever
– Running the ball – in general – seemed dead. Why do it?
But we knew a few things for sure:
– The Colts, Seahawks, Broncos, and Cowboys were awesome!
– The Lions might set defensive records thanks to their front line
– The Raiders, Bucs, Jags, and Jets were awful
But after the last couple weeks… almost all of those things have been thrown out of the window. The Seahawks barely beat Carolina last week to stay above .500, the Colts got rocked by a team we thought was bad in Pittsburgh (wearing those clown jerseys too), and all a terrible, Colt McCoy-led Redskins team had to do was run all-out blitzes on Dallas and their passing game crumbled. Oh and the Pats look good again.
Actually, the Redskins-Cowboys (and to a lesser degree, Colts/Steelers) game showed us a lot, but mainly:
- Running the ball is not dead
- The best pass-defense is to hit the QB before he can release the ball, because after that… Advantage Offense. I don’t remember seeing Big Ben get pressured once last week.
Seriously, this past week reminded me of the last 15 minutes of The Departed. You know, when everyone in the whole movie except Marky Mark dies? All the teams I thought were great got beat, or look extremely vulnerable. As in, there seems to be a formula to beat each of them.
Well, with the exception of Denver (still don’t trust Arizona as a “great” team… I just can’t). It looks like they’re going to be the clear #1. Or will they? They’ve got a trip to Foxborough tonight. And if Tom Brady beats Manning and the last great-looking team we’ve got well then he’s Marky Mark! It’s actually perfect! You think Matt Damon (Peyton Manning) who has systematically eliminated everyone in his path is going to get away with it (I mean, the movie has to end soon, its been over like, 2.5 hours…), but then he walks into his apartment and guess who’s standing there… MARKY FREAKING MARK with a silencer (Tom Brady)
That’s what makes tonight so interesting and so crucial in my opinion. If the Pats can beat the Broncos, the whole league looks wide open, parity (with the exception of the bottom feeders) continues and Goodell wrongly gets credit for a league that is just structured to succeed and continue to capture our imaginations.
Anyways, Mid-season awards:
MVP: Demarco Murray
Honorable Mentions: Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, JJ Watt
Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt
Honorable Mentions: JJ Watt, JJ Watt, JJ Watt, JJ Watt, JJ Watt
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Blake Bortles … BAHAHA JK guys its Zach Martin
Honorable Mention: Sammy Watkins (and a slew of rookie receivers: Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, John Brown)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: CJ Mosley
Honorable Mention: Anthony Barr, Khalil Mack
Coach of the Year: Bruce Arians (how are the Cardinals doing what they’re doing…?)
Breakout Player of the Year: Le’Veon Bell (love to say I told you so)
Comeback Player(s) of the Year: The Von Miller/DeMarcus Ware duo
Honorable Mention: Rolando McClain, GRONK (hate the Pats, LOVE Gronk)
Most Improved: Antonio Brown
Seems like a strange choice I know, but its one thing to be good last year, and its another to elevate your game to the level he’s playing at. He’s the best receiver in the league with Calvin Johnson being hurt – YEA I SAID IT
Bold predictions:
– 49ers emerge as a consensus Top-3 team in Power Rankings by the end of the year. They have SO many hurt All-Pro’s coming back, folks. Don’t sleep on them
– The Lions, Cowboys, and Cardinals win their division and suffer first-round exits in the playoffs
– The Saints resurge and win that awful division, getting hot at the right time and become a sexy playoff pick
– Mike Vick almost keeps Rex Ryan from getting fired, but nah
– Mike Smith gets fired
– The Browns win only two more games
Alright enough rambling… on to the picks
Record Last week: 1-6 (ARARRRGHGHGHGH)
Season Record Against the Spread: 28-21 (a’ight)
Games I’m too chicken to bet on:
Cardinals (+3) at Dallas
Redskins (EVEN) at Minnesota
Rams (+10) at San Fran
Ravens (EVEN) at Pittsburgh
Colts (-3.5) at NY (Giants)
– Cardinals might be good, maybe I’m wrong. If Arians runs up some blitzes and follows the Skins’ formula this one could go either way
– The Redskins have decided to make a QB change after going 2-0 and beating one of the league’s best teams last week on the road. Makes sense
– My blind spot for Austin Davis continues
– God I hate Pittsburgh. No I don’t. I mean, I liked them to start the year, I kind of root for them, but every time I root for/against them… I freaking lose
– If the Giants can hit Luck, they have a shot to win it because Eli hasn’t been terrible and I really like Odell Beckham Jr. But the “never bet on or against Eli Manning” is back in effect
The Picks
Saints (-3.5) over Carolina
I thought about hopping off the Saints bandwagon for a bit there. It was like, me and a couple dudes from New Orleans left on there and I started to get scared. But then last week Brees snapped out of it and trounced a good Packers team
Bucs (+7) over Cleveland
I still think Cleveland stinks. They can run the ball though. I just think that spread is high and I like the Bucs roster. It just doesn’t always translate into wins for them
Eagles (-2.5) over Houston
Houston is a tough team to beat at home, but I think McCoy hits his stride in the second half of the year and the Eagles should win by three. And I still just can’t bring myself to put money on Ryan Fitzpatrick in almost any circumstance. It just feels wrong
Jets (+10) over Kansas City
That’s a big line for a hit or miss offense like KC. I could see them winning by 7. But the latest chapter of the Michael Vick Project is beginning to be written
Jags (+11) over Cincinatti
Why am I doing this to myself? WHY? WHY? I’m taking the points I guess, it’s like playing the book at the Blackjack table, you just follow the rules even when you have a feeling its a bad play. HIT ME!
Chargers (+1.5) over Miami
The Chargers are good, Miami is bad.
New England (+3.5) over Broncos
Upset of the week folks. Brady/Bellichick know they have to score to beat the Broncos. They’re at home so the running game will naturally find its magic with whoever they’re handing the ball to these days, and Gronk is back. I envision a scenario where the Broncos are down three, driving with 30 seconds left, Manning throws a five-yard out to Welker on the goal line and he drops it. Pats win. Or Manning throws for 400 and 5 TD’s and I feel like an idiot. Whatever.
Raiders (+15) at Seattle
15 points!? Gotta take em! Plus, Seattle is struggling on offense folks.
Filler, please feel free to end this blog post by adding some side notes tearing my picks apart and cursing me for another one-win week. -________-