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Mr. Royal covers again today with plenty of notice for weekend bets. I will hit you all up tomorrow with my stuff.

Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to Week 4
Ugh Broncos. You, the NFL’s stupid OT rules and an awful Vikings’ performance kept me from pitching a perfect game last week. (For the record, the Vikings were only one measly point away from covering against a badly underachieving Saints’ team).

Side Note #1: It’s too early to push the panic button in New Orleans, but my hand is hovering over it at the moment if I’m Sean Payton. Here’s the deal: if you’re not going to throw all over the place at will like we all know Brees is capable of, then Rob Ryan’s “something with nothing” defense has to show up. Both sides of the ball have been underwhelming thus far.

But today’s intro is dedicated to ripping the football overtime. Notice how I said “football.” Not “NFL” not “College football” because they’re both terrible.

The logic behind both is stupid and I don’t care what excuse you make for it. In college, yea starting at the 25 is cool, interesting, exciting, whatever. I don’t care. It’s not football. It’s like a football minigame where kick and punt returns are taken out of the game entirely. Look, in an overtime, you should have to play the freaking game to get the result. Not kicking off, not punting, and being guaranteed a decent field goal shot isn’t playing the game.

Take the FSU/Clemson game last week. You know Jimbo Fisher deliberately ran out the clock at the end of that game because he knew he had a better FG kicker, and thus a better chance in OT? That’s insane.

And the NFL. Still can’t get it right. “Modified” Sudden Death. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. Peyton Manning and the Broncos should have at least been given a possession to tie the game. And to all the people who say, “Oh but the game would drag on and on!” Yea. So what? If it’s more fair, so what? It’s not like anyone was going to stop watching that game. It’s not like rating suddenly drop in OT. Baseball games go on and on. Basketball games go on and on for OT. Who cares? Get it right.

Anyways, here’s Week 4. Again, I’m only making picks on games I’m comfortable betting on.

Last week (6-2), Season (6-2) – put a last-second bet on the Bears on Monday… gut feeling type thing

Games I’m too chicken to bet on

Giants (+3.5) at Washington

Bills (+3) at Houston

Bucs (+7.5) at Pittsburgh

Eagles (+4) at San Fran

Pats (-4) at Kansas City

Packers (-1.5) at Chicago

Rapid-Fire Reasoning:

– Rule #3: Never bet on or against Eli Manning. Plus, Kirk Cousins looks like a pretty good bad QB right now

– Who are the Bills? I don’t see how they’re underdogs in this game because Houston looked awful last week but I don’t buy EJ Manuel either

– I like the Steelers to win at home. But I hate that spread. Both teams show that last week was a little fluky.

– I don’t think the Eagles should be an undefeated football team and gun to my head, I think they lose by three or four. But this Niners team looks to be a shell of their former selves. Good spread.

– Is KC better off without Jamaal Charles? Nah, just kidding guys. And Brady you’ve done nothing to show me if you’re still you so I’m obliged to post another sad pic of you and am considering dropping you from my fantasy team.

– Rodgers told everyone to relax this week and Chicago is missing some DB’s (namely the injured Charles Tillman), so I would say GB is gonna win but its a rivalry game vs. Chicago at their house. Anything can happen

The Can’t Miss Picks (home team denoted by city name)

Indianapolis (-7) over Titans
I think Andrew Luck will be a legit contender for MVP honors this year. That’s not an overreaction to last week against an awful Jacksonville team either. He’s throwing all over the place and seems to be adjusting fine to a past-prime Reggie Wayne. That defense would concern me normally, but they’re playing the Titans. Have I mentioned that I think the Titans suck? I have? OK, just checking
Baltimore (-3) over Panthers and the OVER (39.5)
This one pains me because I didn’t think the Ravens would be very good, but the proof is in the pudding. Baltimore destroyed Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh just destroyed the Panthers (in Charlotte, I might add). They also matchup well against Carolina, plus Carolina has no running backs. http://www.journalnow.com/sports/carolinapanthers/panthers-injuries-mounting-for-running-backs/article_37333fb6-a727-5a29-86d4-e2e8e88a33f5.html
Baltimore also showed that they play four full quarters as well as anyone out there. Great tenacity last week against a surprisingly scrappy Browns team. And that over/under is LOW, folks.
Jags (+13.5) over San Diego
Did someone order BORTLES SERVICE? Just kidding guys, I’m not a big Bortles’ guy. Chargers win by 10 or 13, but I love that spread. Gimme the points. (See Rule #2)
Dolphins (-4.5) over Oakland
Hey are the Oakland Raiders still the Raiders? Oh… OK. Yea, I’ll take the other guys, please.
Side Note #2: If you haven’t seen the Other Guys recently, go watch it again. It’s one of those movies that just gets better with each viewing. So quotable. And Will Ferrell is perfect, as always.
Falcons (-3) over Minnesota
I thought that spread was a joke. I seriously had to double check. Yea, I’ll take Julio Jones with a side of Harry Douglas and healthy Roddy White please.
Lions (-1) over NY (Jets)
This is the game I’m feeling the least confident in betting wise, but I just think the Jets might be too turnover-prone to win anytime soon. That run defense is impressive, but so is Detroits’ (Fairley and Suh are in contract years too). The Jets have no one to cover Calvin Johnson.
Side Note #3: As soon as I was ready to say I was wrong about Geno Smith, we get people calling for him to get benched for Vick. It’s not that Geno Smith turns the ball over, it’s HOW he turns the ball over. It seems to be at the worst times…
Saints (-3) over Dallas
Say it with me, now: “I WILL NOT GET SUCKED INTO THINKING DALLAS IS GOOD”
“I WILL NOT GET SUCKED INTO THINKING DALLAS IS GOOD”
“I WILL NOT GET SUCKED INTO THINKING DALLAS IS GOOD”
“I WILL NOT GET SUCKED INTO THINKING DALLAS IS GOOD”