Mr. Royal covers today and gets you ready for the NFL week.
Week 7 Picks
This week is huge for me. Has to be. I talked so much crap about how good my picks have been this year, AND made fun of Filler for his college picks (did he pick Mizz last week!? I can’t tell…). But I went 4-5 last week – and that’s with a line adjustment for the Packers game (went from -3.5 to -2.5 by the time I put my bet in). The Giants’ game hurt the most though… WHAT WAS I THINKING!? Never bet on your team. Clouds the brain.
But for starters, I want to take a quick second to make my case for defensive players winning the MVP and Heisman Trophy (maybe this is about JJ Watt, maybe not, but maybe definitely about Watt).
The definition of MVP is Most Valuable Player. And the Heisman Trophy is Most Outstanding Player. In both cases, I think we undervalue and understandably forget about the impact of defensive players. The Texans lost their All-World 1st-round pick in the first game and all Watt did was pick up the slack and then some. I didn’t have the privilege of watching Reggie White play so I can’t make that comparison, but JJ Watt is the best Defensive End I’ve ever seen play football.
His value is incredible because he doesn’t just play one spot, he moves across the line, drops back in coverage, stops rushing and jumps up to swat (or intercept!) passes and makes you worry about him constantly. Consider the fact that this Texans team took [me and Filler’s sexy Super Bowl contender pick] the Colts to the bitter end of a great game last week, took the Seahawk-beating Cowboys to overtime the week before, and that Ryan Fitzpatrick is turrible.
If you think for one second that the Texans are 3-3 without Watt or even remotely resemble the same team, you’re crazy. He’s the Most Valuable Player to his team right now, and if they figure out how to play offense they’ll be in the playoff mix.
On to the picks:
Games I’m too chicken to bet on:
Giants (+6.5) at Dallas
Titans (+5.5) at Washington
Browns (-6) at Jacksonville
Vikings (+6) at Buffalo
Panthers (+7) at Green Bay
Chiefs (+4) at San Diego
Texans (+3.5) at Pittsburgh
Seahawks (-7.5) at St. Louis
- I have no idea who this Giants team is. Eli looks solid, so I’m not going to post a sad picture of him. The lack of passion and heart along that O-line among some of the other players is concerning. And I’m ready to admit I’m wrong about Dallas (excuse me while I throw up)
- I think Tennessee sucks, but I find it hard to believe in the Redskins being a TD favorite in any game right now. I still can’t believe they didn’t cover last week
- Saw a guy at Wal-Mart last week wearing a Brady Quinn Browns jersey DURING the Browns’ game. Homeboy gave up being a Browns’ fan so long ago he doesn’t even know they’re kinda good now. Still don’t buy it
- The Vikings have just decided to bite me in the ass when I bet on them or bet against them
- Rodgers wins another tight one I think, I don’t like that line
- When you look at a line and think, “which way is Vegas trying to get me to bet here?” and you just can’t tell, don’t bet.
- I’ve given up making excuses for the Steelers. I really don’t know what to say anymore. Like, be better at defense? How are you 31st in Red-Zone Efficiency? Throw a fade to Antonio Brown into triple coverage, he’ll figure it out… Mind-boggling underachievement right now. Still love Tomlin though. “We’re gonna own it. We’re gonna get better. And that starts with me. We’re gonna own it though! Gotta get better. We’re taking it one game at a time!” LOVE him.
- I hate this spread. I think the Seahawks win by 7, but I can’t justify putting money down. If the line changed to Seahawks (-7) I’d probably take it
Jets (+10) over New England
I’ll probably kick myself for this one because New England looks pretty good. I just hate ten point spreads and if Geno hadn’t thrown one of the worst pick-sixes ever last week, they actually would’ve covered that Broncos’ spread. Jets lose by like, seven.
Falcons (+7) over Baltimore
I’m a believer in this Ravens’ team (again I think I just threw up in my mouth a little). They play defense, Flacco isn’t being stupid, and has flashes of “WOW” in him that I can’t explain. The Falcons are awful on the road, but I don’t think they’re a 2-4 football team. I’m not saying they win, but I think they can cover 7.
Indy (-3.5) over Bengals
Andrew Luck is legit. That is all.
Chicago (-3.5) over Dolphins
The Bears are 0-2 at home? That doesn’t make any sense. Yea, that’s one of those stats I choose to make absolutely nothing of. The ‘Phins aren’t bad, but it’s about time the Bears got a big win at home. They’ll force a couple turnovers in this one and get those two big receivers involved against Cortlandt Finnegan and Brent Grimes. It’s going to be a great battle on the outside but I like the Bears by a TD.
Saints (+3) at Detroit
Love everyone doubting the Saints. The Lions’ defense is nothing to joke about though. I think if you give Sean Payton two weeks to prepare for any defense, they’ll figure it out. The Lions aren’t that good. And Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson are still a bit hobbled. Can’t see them winning this game.
Cardinals (-4) over Oakland
Oakland, just like… prove me wrong. Give me something to work with here. I want to stop dogging you guys on here but it’s just too easy. You’re the comedy gift that keeps on giving.
Denver (-6.5) over 49ers
“Peyton Manning at home wins by a TD.” That’s not a shocking headline against any team. I think there’s some serious stuff brewing beneath the surface in San Francisco that they’ve just done a great job of covering up so far. What do you think Jim?
