Mr. Royal covers today in your weekly NFL breakdown. Enjoy.
Week 10 Preview: Dumb Luck
As the Colts enter their BYE Week, they do so with the NFL’s leading passer, Andrew Luck with 3085 yards. The next closest passer is Ben Roethlisberger – who trails Luck by over 300 yards (and also has yet to have a BYE Week). Manning, Brees, and Brady are next. He has 500 yards more than all of them (granted, Brees and Manning have had their BYEs).
Luck also boasts 26 TDs against 9 INTs and a modest 64% completion percentage. At this pace, he will throw for roughly 5500 yards and 46 TDs in what appears to be a guaranteed MVP-candidate season.
I’ve recently heard a tremendous amount of stupid arguing about whether or not Andrew Luck is as good as we seem to think he is. No, he doesn’t lack for weapons. But aging Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, and a Trent Richardson backfield pales in comparison to what we see in Denver, Chicago, Cincinatti, Detroit, Atlanta, New Orleans, and even Pittsburgh as far as “weapons” are concerned. And let’s remember that he went 11-5 in consecutive seasons taking over a 2-14 team before he got there.
The scariest part about Luck is that he’s actually getting better (QB Rating getting better each year). He cut INTs thrown in half from 2012 to 2013 and won his first playoff game in dramatic fashion with one of the biggest come-from-behind victories in NFL Playoff history.
These are bottom line numbers. I don’t have time to give you some cool Five Thirty Eight or Regression or Deadspin analysis of his downfield passing, or his YPA versus his WR’s YAC – if I got paid for this I would. But the bottom line says that Andrew Luck is really good – in fact, he’s way better than he should be for a guy in his third year.
If you still aren’t convinced, just compare him to other QB’s in their third year – namely RGIII. Sure, its easy to point to Russell Wilson as an early success story. You can’t argue with Lombardi hardware, I get that. But if you think the defense behind Andrew Luck should be mentioned in the same sentence as that 2013 Seahawk team then you don’t know anything about football.
But the RGIII comparison is a fair one. Sure, he won RoY and has been battered by injury. Seems unfair right? We always talk about him like he’s been hurt and so his team’s (and his own) lack of success recently has been because of that. But RGIII played 13 games last year before being benched for non-injury related reasons. The coach was blamed, ostracized, and ran out of D.C. and Jay Gruden came in. You know Jay Gruden. The guy who said this week, “the jury is still out on that [QB] position.” Why? Is it because RGIII has “alienated” himself from teammates, according to one report? Or is it just his overall underachievement since his rookie year? Or is it because it looks like he has to be peeled off the field after every hit he takes? Or is it because he holds on to the ball entirely too wrong and is very indecisive (took 5 sacks last week)? Or because he tweets passive aggressive things that remind you of a teenage girl?
Colt McCoy led the Redskins to two consecutive victories – one against a top-5 team in the Cowboys AT Dallas. So why not stick with the hot hand? Why go back to RGIII? Because of the price they paid for him. It has to work. Or a bunch of people look real, real dumb. Washington gave up a No. 2 pick (2014), No. 6 pick (2012), No. 22 pick (2013), and No. 39 pick (2012) for the No. 2 pick in 2012 that gave them Griffin.
The Colts gave up nothing for Andrew Luck. THAT is what makes him an amazing, incredibly lucky (no pun intended) windfall for Indianapolis. How many teams go from an unquestioned top-5 QB in NFL History to the best QB prospect of a decade in one year AND see it work out for them!? Insane. Just dumb luck.
On to the picks:
Last week: 6-2
Overall: 34-23
Games I’m too chicken to bet on:
Browns (+6.5) at Cincy
Dolphins (+3) at Detroit
Cowboys (-7.5) at Jacksonville
Niners (+5.5) at New Orleans
Rams (+7) at Arizona
Giants (+9.5) at Seattle
Rapid Fire Reasoning:
- I still don’t understand a world where the Browns don’t suck. And if your Cincy, you gotta win at home against the Browns if you want to be taken seriously in that division with Pittsburgh annihilating people right now
- Holy hamburger Batman, did you see that ‘Phins-Bolts game last week? I don’t know what to make of that. I can’t bet for/against either team until I see them both play again. I admittedly, and understandably, have not watched much Dolphins’ football this year.
- Is Romo starting? If yes, then yea I’m taking the ‘Boys.
- I still think the Niners are going to heat up at some point, but this is the New Orleans’ dome we’re talking about. My only concern for that spread is that the Saints don’t perform too well against physical teams
- My blind spot for Austin Davis continues, and I STILL don’t trust the Cardinals.
- Seahawks don’t look great, but the Giants play football like they just can’t wait to go home
Can’t Miss Picks! (I think?)
Chiefs (-2.5) over Buffalo
Still can’t live in a world where the Kyle Orton Buffalo Bills are good. Although Sammy Watkins is tremendous, I actually like that Chiefs’ secondary. They’re 1st in the league in Opposing Pass Yards. Drop that knowledge on your friends at the bar. Justin Houston also leads the league in sacks. WOOO! So much knowledge being dropped right now. Filler, gimme a raise, dude!
Baltimore (-10) over Titans
Have I mentioned that I think the Titans suck this year? Oh, I have? Just checking. Have I mentioned that I’m not a Zach Mettenberger fan? OK, I won’t beat the dead horse. I almost always take the points on a ten-point spread. But the Titans suck and the Ravens have got to be pretty pissed about that being Big Ben’s latest victim. Speaking of…
Steelers (-6) over New York (Jets)
Unlike my Saints bandwagon (which I stayed on stubbornly) I recently hopped of the Steeler bandwagon to take a look at other bandwagons after that Browns’ game. But I’m back on. Or maybe I just think a 6-point spread for a QB who’s thrown 12 TD’s in two weeks against the league’s worst (maybe?) team is a joke. By the way, the latest chapter in the Michael Vick Project is coming. But it’s shaping up to be a really sad chapter so I don’t want to write it.
Side Note: Looooong time readers and only the most dedicated of Fillerbuster fans will get that reference. If you have any idea what I’m talking about email Filler and he’ll send you a pillow.
Side Note: Speaking of sending things, get an Amazon Prime account 30-day trial. It’s free, and it makes shipping free – it’s kind of amazing. And it’s perfect for the holidays. And then you can just cancel it when you’ve ordered all your shit with free shipping. Genius.
Falcons (-3) over Tampa Bay
I don’t know why the Falcons are as bad as they are but they demolished Tampa Bay last time. The Bucs will be out for some revenge and apparently Josh McCown is starting again. Those two things still don’t add up to covering a 3-point spread against Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Harry Douglas, and Roddy White.
Oakland (+12) over Broncos
That’s a huge spread. I mean, even for Oakland that’s a huge spread. And this sounds like I’m reaching here considering they’re 0-8, but Oakland looks better recently. They took Seattle to the 4th quarter last week. Peyton’s not one to suffer from a hangover, the guy is a pro but they got embarrassed last week in Foxborough. It will be interesting to see how they respond to a Raider team trying to make a statement and take a huge moral victory away from 2014.
Green Bay (-7.5) over Bears
The Pack is 3-0 at home and Rodgers is healthy. I’ve completed abandoned my Bears bandwagon (sorry Loges, I tried). I’m on entirely too many bandwagons. The Bears are like a complicated Calculus problem that you give up trying to work through so you just throw your hands up and say, “I dunno, it doesn’t make sense but I guess Jay Cutler just isn’t good.” That receiving corps… I can’t get over it, I can’t explain it.
Philadelphia (-6.5) over Panthers
Out of all my picks I’m the least confident in this one, but I don’t think Sanchez is that bad. He’s not going to win you games if you don’t surround him with a good defense or any offensive weapons. But the Eagles have a good defense and a ton of offensive weapons. I keep being told that Chip Kelly and plug and play with any QB in that offense and I kind of buy it. But this is as much about how bad I think the Panthers are as it is about how good I think the Eagles can be. This Panther team is very disappointing and full of underachievers (minus Luke Kuechly).