Mr. Royal covers today. My blog list still being added to for when I have time. Enjoy.

Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to Week 5 – The OVERreaction

“Football is so stressful when you don’t know you’re going to win every weekend.”

• Patriots’ fan friend of mine

Ahh yes. How the mighty have fallen. The great New England Patriots are done for. Brady is officially washed up, throwing inaccurate passes, showing little to no emotion or give a shit. The Patriots best receiver is Danny Amendola, err – Julian Edelman… I dunno. It’s some white guy who can’t get separation from any DB’s. They traded away one of the remaining pieces of an already aging O-line to Tampa Bay for a sixth-round pick, a tight end (who is useless), some dusty baseball cards Lovie Smith found in his attic that might be worth something, and some bits of string from his khaki pockets. Defensively, they could be good but unfortunately Darrelle Revis has not been an upgrade from Aqib Talib. In fact, Revis has been quite frankly, average. Maybe Wilfork is washed up too. The sky is basically falling.

Or at least that’s what everyone on ESPN and talk radio is acting like this week. In the words of Aaron Rodgers, “R-E-L-A-X. Relax.”

Let’s start by reminding ourselves that Tom Brady is still Tom Brady. He’s two crazy plays away from being 5-0 in Super Bowls.  Let’s remind ourselves of who the Pats had at wide receiver last year. OK… so yea, the same group of dudes. Yea but Gronk is… oh yea, he’s actually healthy this year. Oh, and Logan Mankins? He gave up more sacks than any other player on that O-line last year. And if you look at last year’s Pats’ defense and this year’s roster, how could this year’s defense be worse?

We overreact tremendously in sports. Was my preseason prediction of the Pats maybe a bit too aggressive? Sure. But are they dead in the water? Please. They had a bad game. The Lakers once beat the Celtics 137-103 in an NBA Finals game. A 34-point loss? Wow. That’s embarrassing. It’s also possible that the Celtics had a really bad night that for some reason, you just can’t explain. That’s probably why they went on to win that series 4-3. Trust me, no one would enjoy seeing the Pats fail more than me, but I’ve just been watching football too long to say that at 2-2 after Week 4, any Tom Brady-Bill Belichick team shouldn’t be favored to win a division that’s this bad (they get some guys back on defense soon too).

Also, how bad is the AFC East? I’ll tell you how bad it is:

• The Bills just benched their first-round pick QB for Kyle Orton.

Side Note: How many times am I going to write on this blog that drafting EJ Manuel 15^th overall was one of the worst draft moves I’ve seen in NFL History? One more time I guess. Have I mentioned that I think the Bills stink? Ok, just making sure.

• The Dolphins were thinking about benching the only good QB with championship potential they’ve had since Dan freaking Marino because their coach seems to move further and further away from confident, no-nonsense hardliner towards bumbling idiot who’s in way over his head
• The Jets are so dysfunctional that first Rex Ryan said that the decision to keep starting Geno Smith instead of Mike Vick was “Not his decision to make.” The head coach. He actually said those words. Then he came back today and said he thought Geno would be fine and will “be a good quarterback someday.” Idzik knows Vick gives them a better chance to win but won’t give up on his first high-profile pick in Geno, and if the Jets lose he gets to fire Rex and put his guy in.

So let’s all just pump the brakes on the whole “stick a fork in the Patriots” thing. Unless the Jets start Vick and he stays healthy, or suddenly Joe Philbin stops undermining his own QB publicly, there’s no way New England loses this division.

On to the picks:

Last week against the spread: (5-3) … and I got the OVER right on the Carolina game but I’m not bragging.

2014 Overall against the spread: (11-5)

Games I’m too chicken to bet on this week:

Vikings (+8.5) at Green Bay

Falcons (+4.5) at New York (Giants)

Cardinals (+8) at Denver

Chiefs (+6.5) at San Fran

Rams (+7) at Philadelphia

Rapid-fire reasoning:

• Is Teddy playing? Why is that spread so high? Is Green Bay any good defensively? Is Minnesota only good at home? Is Rodgers finally going to destroy defenses like I thought he would?
• Rule #3: Never bet on or against Eli Manning. I need to start ripping Eli on this blog more. He plays better after I rip him.
• I almost took Arizona. Big spread for a 3-0 team. But Arizona isn’t that good. Denver definitely wins but I can’t say they’ll cover.
• Is KC good? San Francisco’s defense is great, even without a bunch of dudes they’ll get back soon. But I think these teams are pretty evenly matched
• Trap game for Philly. I’m thinking Rams with the upset. But no way I put money where my mouth is

Bears (+2.5) over Carolina

I don’t think Carolina is very good this year and people aren’t ready to admit that yet. Sorry Cam. Still no running backs, still one receiver, still under-performing defense.

Browns (+1) over Tennessee

Any time Tennessee is favored in a game against anyone who isn’t Oakland or Jacksonville, you can count me in for betting on the other guys. Have I mentioned that I think the Titans are terrible? Oh I did? OK. Browns just barely lost to the Steelers and just barely lost to the Ravens – two good teams. I don’t know what God Brian Hoyer prays to, but it’s working.

Bucs (+10) over New Orleans

I know it’s in the dome. I know the Bucs really aren’t that good. Don’t care. Ten-point spread, I’m grabbing the points. See Rule #2.

Dallas (-6) over Texans

I’m not ready to admit Dallas is good. It’s just too hard, it’s too early in the season, and I’ve been bitten by thinking this team was good before. But the one thing I can tell you is that Houston sans-JJ Watt is terrible. And the Cowboys’ strength is their O-line. I can’t see them not winning by a TD at home.

Detroit (-7) over Bills

Have I mentioned that I think the Bills stink? I have? Have I mentioned that I think the Kyle Orton Bills will stink? They will.

Indy (-3.5) over Ravens

That half-point is kind of crappy and was almost the difference between me betting on this and putting it in the “too chicken” column. The Ravens are legit. I can’t believe I’m saying that, but they look good. But the Colts are better right now I think. Luck is on his own planet.

Steelers (-6.5) over Jacksonville

Rule #4: The Jacksonville Jaguars will never cover a spread, ever… kidding, but seriously.

San Diego (-7) over Jets

Philip Rivers is my runner-up to JJ Watt and Andrew Luck for MVP honors thus far. And I love Keenan Allen. There’s a fire in that man. Oh, and the Jets stink.

New England (+1.5) over Bengals

This is putting my money where my mouth is I guess. Belichick is tired of getting ripped all week, Brady is sick of hearing he’s washed up. Pats win big at home.

Seahawks (-7.5) over Washington

I almost didn’t bet on this one because of that half-point. But I think Seattle’s offense is better than we give them credit for with Percy Harvin in the mix. And maybe I was a bit too quick to judge the potential of Kirk Cousins. Just maybe (4 picks last week… WHYYYYYY right after I write nice things about you!?)