Mr. Royal covers today. NFL coverage. I might pop in tomorrow morning with my college picks. Enjoy. He writes better and more focused quality, but I will shout at you Saturday or Sunday.

Week 11 Preview: Déjà vu

The NFL slate this weekend may not be as good as last weekend’s college football matchups, but it’s at least close. Maybe not an encore, but certainly an echo. Or maybe it’s like Déjà vu. I dunno, I suck at analogies.

However, there is no better game than Pats-Colts. Both squads are coming off a BYE. Luck has been my sexy pick for MVP and it seems to be catching on with a lot of guys in the mainstream discussions. I’ve already gushed over the guy so I won’t focus there, in fact I don’t have much of a theme at all so I won’t force one and bore you guys with sub-standard crap. My team is way out of playoff contention, so at this point I can just turn on the Ticket and binge-watch some fantastic football and hope you all have the chance to do the same this weekend.

Last Week’s Picks: 5-2

Overall Record: 39-25

Games I’m too chicken to bet on:

Seahawks (+1) at Kansas City

Bucs (+7.5) at Washington

49ers (-4.5) at NY (Giants)

Lions (EVEN) at Arizona

Rapid-Fire Reasoning:

• Season is growing longer so I feel like I know more and more about each team so I’m betting on more games. And for the life of me, I cannot figure out what’s wrong with Seattle but I don’t trust them. If I absolutely had to bet money on this game I’d take KC because they’re at home and those fans show up HUGE for big games. But I can’t let go of the idea that Seattle still isn’t at least close to last year’s team.
• I would have a hard time betting on RGIII covering 7 and a half against any team in the NFL… except the Bucs/Raiders/Jets/Titans
• The Giants win stupid games they shouldn’t win when they’re out of playoff contention and its too late to care. I don’t think this is that game, but they’re at home and maybe they make a close game out of this with a STRUGGLING Niners team. I thought they’d turn the corner by now, but they look like an echo of the team they once were psychologically
• This is an amazing game. I was just coming around to thinking that Arizona was a good team. Then Carson Palmer’s knee went out tragically and I don’t know if I trust Drew Stanton to put up enough to beat the Lions with a healthy Calvin Johnson

The Picks

Chicago (-3) OVER Vikings

The Bears have to win a game at home, right? Like, they have to. It just makes no sense for them to start 0-4 at home. That’s just too bad, too weird. They’re playing the Vikings and I don’t know who Teddy Bridgewater is on the road. I think Trestman runs the ball heavily to take some of the pressure off of Cutler who is on a hot seat along with his coach. Picking Chicago by a TD.

Texans (+3.5) OVER Cleveland

That half a point doomed Cleveland on this pick. I’d have to think about Cleveland (-3). I might be one of those dumb guys who likes Ryan Mallet for no reason. But I think the football he has played (which means nothing right now, I recognize that) shows me that he certainly has potential to be way better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Texans rush the ball very well but don’t defend as well as you would think. But the Browns aren’t anything special offensively and give up a lot of yards on the ground. Hoyer has yet to face a great pass-rusher and win the game. Mallet covers and wins.

Falcons (-1) OVER Carolina

The Falcons aren’t good but Carolina is terrible. I’m genuinely beginning to think Carolina has ruined the second-best QB prospect to enter the NFL outside of Andrew Luck over the past five years. Cam Newton is a tremendous talent. The full package. He’s tall, heavy/sturdy, underratedly (not a word) fast, with a cannon arm. There were some accuracy issues early, but he fixed them last year I think. The Panthers mismanaged Steve Smith, told him to figure it out with only Kelvin Benjamin and a bad O-line and declining defense and a nagging injury. It’s too early to say he needs a fresh start, but I don’t want to see him morph into an unconfident shell of his former self.

Bengals (+7.5) OVER New Orleans

Andy Dalton is terrible in big games and they just got crushed at home by the freaking Bengals. I don’t know how many times I have to tell people the Bengals aren’t that good and Dalton got overpaid. AJ Green gave up on him last week and he was historically bad. Bill Barnwell summed it up brilliantly in this piece. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nfl-midseason-award-winners/ Historically bad, people. How do you rebound against Brees and the Saints in the dome? You don’t. He wins by a lot.

St. Louis (+10.5) OVER Broncos

I have a blind spot for Austin Davis. We know this. I hate 10-point spreads. I almost always take the points. We know this. Let’s move on and you can make fun of me next week when Denver wins by 20

Raiders (+10.5) OVER San Diego

Is San Diego good? I still have question marks. And I’m still not buying that the Raiders can go 0-16. They’ve gotta steal a game where they get pissed off enough to play respectably, right? I dunno. Maybe I really just hate 10+ point spreads.

Green Bay (-6) OVER Eagles

I’ve come around to the idea that the Eagles are legit. But Aaron Rodgers is in that zone that only he and about three other guys can get in. Dude is locked in. He’ll be at home. Rodgers at home versus Mark Sanchez. Yea, I’ll take Rodgers by 7. And I actually like Sanchez more than most.

Patriots (+2.5) OVER Indy

See above about Aaron Rodgers. Tom Brady is also in that zone. Belichick rarely loses after a BYE, and you’ve gotta be crazy to think any of Indy’s linebackers can cover Gronk. No one has had an answer for him. Teams aren’t even trying to bump and run him and they’re paying the price. Great game though.

Steelers (-6.5) at Tennessee

• Have I mentioned that I think the Titans stink? Oh, I have. OK.