Mr. Royal covers today with a preview of the AFC North, and I am ok with the Steelers being predicted 2nd. KIND of ok. Not really, but it is what it is.
FILLERBUSTER: I have 50 black and gold pillows and three that have Cleveland colors via a magic marker.
Unrelated Side Note: Filler and I really need a third dude to write for this site who knows way more about baseball than I do. I started to write a trade deadline piece, but I honestly just don’t think I could do it justice. I will say I think it’s the most significant trade deadline day I’ve seen in my lifetime. Billy Beane is a genius, that previously-decimated rotation is now rivaled only by the other big winner at the deadline, Detroit. One of those two teams will win the World Series, not a doubt in my mind.
AFC North Preview: I Don’t Know What To Do With My Hands
I seriously think Filler might fire me after this post. Or maybe he’ll just demote me. Or maybe he’ll take away my interns. At the very least, I know he won’t give me a raise after this one. Because I think this is the hardest division to call (yes, even harder than the volatile NFC East). And your newly-established degenerate gambler wouldn’t touch this division with a dime of his money.
Now that I’ve thoroughly convinced you to read the rest of this post and demonstrated so much confidence in my own analysis, let’s check out what Vegas thinks about the AFC North.
For those of you non-degenerates, let me translate. The only thing Vegas knows is that the Browns won’t win this division. And my guess is they’re hoping enough suckers think this year will pan out like last year and throw their money at the Bengals. Because think about it, if you dropped $500 bucks on the Bengals, Vegas is only out $300 bucks – not bad. At the same time, they’re giving the Ravens and Steelers a decent shot at winning this thing and giving you slightly more than double your money if you do.
To make it even simpler, Vegas is saying, we don’t know what’s going to happen. “Hey, if these guys bet on the favorite and it pans out, we’re not losing much. The second and third-place projected teams have a better combined chance of winning than the favorite does alone. And still out of the remaining bettors who don’t put their money on Cincy, only 50% of them will be right and there will be more than enough bets on the favorite to pay them back.”
I know it’s boring, but I already admitted I don’t know what’s going to happen in this division – so I’m following suit with Vegas, folks.
Fourth Place: Cleveland Browns (5-11) Divisional Record (2-4)
Hey angry Cleveland guy, who’s your running back? Who’s playing receiver for you guys this year? Does defense win games?
Answers: Ben Tate (backup last year, never rushed for 1,000 yards), 30-year old Miles Austin (24 receptions on 49 targets in 11 games last year), and no, offense wins games, defense wins championships if you can get into the playoffs which is something the Browns never, ever do.
I’ve always maintained that I think some guys look really good in practice and others just plain don’t. Tebow actually looked pretty good during games for the Broncos and he won most of them. But, Tebow is just one of those dudes that you always heard didn’t look good in practice, and that’s why Elway dumped him and Rex never started him. My guess is that Manziel is not one of those “looks good in practice,” dudes but man something about rolling those cameras and turning him loose just gets him going. Brian Hoyer? He seems like a “looks good in practice,” dude.
But of course Brian Hoyer looks good in practice. Let’s play the “How many recent starting quarterbacks for the Cleveland Browns can you name?” game. Take it away, Wikipedia!
– Brian Hoyer
– Brandon Weeden
– Jason Campbell
– Thad Lewis (I totally forgot about that one!)
– Seneca Wallace
– Colt McCoy
– Jake Delhomme
– Brady Quinn
– Derek Anderson
– Ken Dorsey
– Bruce Gradkowski
Ok, my fingers are getting tired. How far did I get back? ONLY TO 2008? That was like… only six years ago!
Hands down the most frequently-asked question I get from my friends when we talk sports is, “What do you think is going to happen with Johnny Manziel this year?”
The Browns will start 0-3 (@ Pittsburgh, vs. NO, vs. Baltimore). After Brees obliterates the Browns in Cleveland in Week 2, the “Coach, at any point did you consider putting in Manziel?” questions from the media will begin and Mike Pettine will deflect those questions like any good coach would. On the verge of going 0-3, we will start to hear boos as the Browns players jog into the locker room down 17-3 at halftime. By the fourth quarter, some form of a “WE WANT JOHN-NY” or “JOHN-NY FOOT-BALL” chant will start. The CBS cameras will pan around the stadium and even Stevie Wonder will notice that the number of “Manziel” jerseys heavily outweighs the number of “Hoyer” jerseys. Several fans will simply stand in defiance with their arms raised making what appears to be a money symbol of sorts with their hands.
Side Note: Any readers that can send me a picture of a Browns’ fans wearing a Brian Hoyer jersey, please send it to gaberoyal17@gmail.com and Mark Filler will send you an official Fillerbuster pillow and give you a free one-year subscription to thefillerbuster.com.
During the most-anticipated BYE Week in NFL History, the media hysteria at Browns’ practice will rival that of the NFL’s Media Day. After nearly killing a reporter during a postgame press conference, coach Pettine maintains that he is, “constantly evaluating the starting quarterback situation as he does with every other position.” In the week of practice after the BYE week, some Cleveland beat writer notices that Manziel gets more reps with the first team. By the end of the BYE Week, Manziel gets all the reps with the first team and Pettine is forced to announce that Johnny Football will start for the Cleveland Browns at Tennessee in Week 5.
After a rough start, Manziel leads the Browns to a comeback victory against the Titans. Skip Bayless’ head explodes, Twitter breaks, Mike and Mike spend two hours the next day debating whether or not Manziel had a “good day” or “just got lucky.” Manziel returns to Cleveland beating the Steelers at home Week 6, and the Browns win two of their next three (@JAX, vs. OAK, vs. TB). Manziel is pre-annointed Rookie of the Year, Cleveland rejoices, and Manziel knows exactly what to do with his hands
… and then they win one or two games the rest of the way finishing 5-11 or 6-10 after a 4-4 start.
Poetic, isn’t it? I’m only half-kidding by the way.
Third Place: Baltimore Ravens (8-8) (Divisional Record: 2-4)
As criminal as it was to only give Ray Rice a two-game suspension for what he did, I do think those two games are going to hurt Baltimore coming out. They could very well start 0-2, more likely 1-1 in their two home games against division rivals following that up with two losses against those teams on the road. Maybe they split with the Browns from their and voila you’ve got your 2-4 division record.
On the offensive side of the ball I think we all know what to expect. Flacco just is what he is at this point. He’s that “10th-best quarterback in the league” type of dude. The problem is, he’s getting paid like a top-5 guy and it’s really put his team in a bind when it comes to cap space. They did very little address their lack of offensive weaponry in the offseason.
The biggest question you’re left with offensively is “Who are these guys?” and you can apply it to almost all of their skill position players not-named Torrey Smith. Ray Rice regressed last year (Did you know the Ravens were 30th in rushing last year?). Does Steve Smith still have it? Can Marlon Brown live up to the flashes of potential we’ve seen? And is Jacoby Jones has always seemed content with being the #2 guy and his play last year and the acquisition of Smith could stick him as low as your #4 guy. On the other hand, if all these guys played to their potential, the Ravens could sneakily have the best receiving corps 1 through 4 as there is in the NFL. I’m betting on the former. Outside of Steve Smith I just don’t see much leadership there and these guys seem to play like dudes who just won a Super Bowl and not guys who need a ring.
I like the moves defensively. I truly believe that CJ Mosley will end up being the best player of the 2014 NFL Draft outside of Jadeveon Clowney. Very smart football guy. I thought Timmy Jernigan was a steal at 48th overall but I think he will spend a year mostly playing behind Ngata. I can’t lie, the Ravens’ linebacking corps scares me. Mosley, Terrell Suggs (probably overpaid, but still a very scary man), and Daryl Smith (123 tackles, 3 INT, 2 FF) quietly had a better year than Suggs did last year. I worry about that secondary, though. And in a passing league I think you have to pass-rush and/or have a great secondary (ask the Seahawks). I think the defense will be better than last year, but not so good that it forces turnovers that win multiple games and not so good that it will allow less points than that offense can score.
Second-Place: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) (Divisional: 4-2)
Ok so here’s what happened with Pittsburgh. First, I thought “Pittsburgh isn’t really that good anymore.” Then, I thought “But somehow, someway the Steelers are always pretty good. You never like seeing them on your schedule.” And then I thought, “If I don’t give Pittsburgh a winning record then Filler is gonna fire me for sure.” Then I thought, “Well screw Filler.”
Then I looked at the schedule and actually came up with 9-7.
Then I thought, “Nah that can’t be right. Let’s see what Vegas is saying.”
Sure enough, the over-under for Steeler wins this year is exactly 9. OK, sounds about right.
Time for some obscure stats for ya:
- Ben Roethlisberger ranks 15th in weighted career value among ALL active players of ALL positions. I started to explain what that meant, but suffice it to say I absolutely love this metric and it says a lot about how great and consistent Big Ben has been. (for an explanationhttp://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/career_av_active.htm)
- Polamalu is 17th
- Antonio brown was 2nd in receiving yards, 3rd in 20+ yard receptions, 7th in YAC, 2nd in 1st-down receptions and 2nd in total receptions. Those are pretty incredibly efficient numbers, and not due to a lack of targets. Fantasy Football nerds, if this guy is around in the 4th or 5thround…
- Pittsburgh was average in 3rd down efficiency, 20th in total offense, 27th in rushing offense, average in special teams, 20th in turnover differential, and 21st in rush defense. A lot can be said here. Does that sound like a team that could overcome all that mediocrity and still go 8-8 last year (4-2 divisional)?
Side Note: I’m typing this on my wife’s Macbook because my laptop is down and it is the most frustrating thing in the world for someone who never uses Mac for anything. Sorry, had to get that off my chest.
In the midst of all that, Roethlisberger was still Roethlisberger (threw for 4,261 yards last year) and I think that and a few other things are enough to make me believe Pittsburgh is at least a game better this year.
One of those reasons is I think that secondary is still one of the best in football. Maybe even top-5 (Taylor, Polamalu, Gay, and Mitchell). That pass defense was 9th overall last year. If you’re noticing a trend, I’m big on secondaries. The lack of a great pass-rusher on the D-line is concerning for most teams, but the Steelers 3-4 has always predicated on rushing from one or more of those four linebackers. I really liked Jarvis Jones in college and although I think he has underperformed thus far as a pro, Tomlin seems to be very cautious with him in preseason play and I think he’s going to be huge for Pittsburgh this year.
First-Place: Cincinnati Bengals 10-6 (Divisional Record: 4-2)
I thought the Bengals were going to be all that last year. Maybe I got too fired up by Hard Knocks, maybe I fell in love with Giovani Bernard, maybe I forgot that Andy Dalton was their quarterback and Marvin Lewis was there coach, but I thought they were good enough to at least win a playoff game.
History tells us that the Bengals will be almost the same team they were a year ago, only with a slightly-overpaid Andy Dalton. The Bengals lost both their OC and DC (which usually happens to teams who were once terrible and then go 11-5) so consequently I don’t really know what to expect as far as schemes and strategy go. The best thing the Bengals can do for themselves is to unleash Giovani Bernard (who I’m still in love with). I mean, if your team was playing the Bengals last year, every time that dude caught the ball in space it had to have sent a shiver up your spine.
Side Note on Dalton: Let’s all calm down with contract under-analysis. Andy Dalton didn’t sign a $115 million dollar deal. He kind of did, but you have to dig deeper. The contract included a lot of deceiving money (12 mil signing bonus, only 17 mil guaranteed). It’s heavily front-loaded and the Bengals can basically cut the dude after a year if something better presents itself.
Dalton benefitted from having a great Offensive Coordinator and a top-3 receiver. There were times where Dalton literally closed his eyes and threw it as hard as he could and AJ Green would somehow catch the ball FANTASY GUY BEWARE!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hftxypoSF2I
I have a lot of questions that lead me to believe the Bengals will be at least a game or two worse than last year. How does Geno Atkins recover from season-ending injury? Did you know that James Harrison doesn’t play for them anymore? What do I make of a secondary that was 5th in yards allowed last year but has only a couple names I recognize?
Yup. The Bengals will be a lesser-version of what they were a year ago unless someone steps up and surprises me. They’ll make the playoffs. Dalton and Lewis will blow it in the first round. And after a few weeks of “Will the Bengals finally push eject button on Marvin Lewis’ hot seat?” we’ll have deja vu all over again.
In conclusion, the Bengals success last year, combined with the volatility of Johnny Football, combined with the unfulfilled potential I see in the Ravens, combined with Big Ben’s astounding consistency in a contract year leads me to have very little confidence in calling this division one way or another. I don’t know what to do with my hands. And neither does this guy:
