Mr. Royal covers today with NFL picks for tomorrow. My list is still going and I will be locked and loaded for a monster tomorrow.

Well, shit. Maybe We Needed 8 Teams… (and the NFL Picks)

My Current Top 4:

1. Alabama
2. FSU
3. Oregon
4. State

I’ve changed this a few times. I had FSU third behind Oregon, but I think there’s something to be said for being undefeated – that has to be worth something in all of this craziness. I also had Baylor in that fourth spot. But if you’re Mississippi State and your only loss is to the best team in the country, how does that make you not worthy of being in the top 4?

This thing is a mess, folks. I was among the fans leading the charge for the 4-team playoff. I said, “It’s better than two teams!” Is it? Sure, if this is a year where we had three or more power-5 conference teams that were undefeated, the 4-team playoff would be way better – no doubt.

But this year? With all teams being this close to equal, and the only team who’s “earned it” being FSU by being undefeated? Debatable. I mean, if the season were to end right now and someone said, “Yup, the championship is between Alabama and FSU,” would that be so bad?

I’m not arguing that we should go back to the BCS. Not at all. In fact, I like the playoff and 4 teams is definitely better than 2 teams. But I’m stricken by the thought that just a couple years ago, we were all clamoring for a four-team playoff as the answer to all our BCS woes. Here it is folks, and I’m just hearing a lot of complaining about it. In fact, I’ve been one of the people doing the complaining.

So the next step in our logic is to say, “OH! Well an 8-team playoff would be best, right!? Absolutely! Who could argue?” Well, depending on how it’s executed, we could have as much debate, complaining, anger, and anxiety over an 8-team playoff as we do right now. Why? Because just like a 4-team playoff, the criteria by which we select the teams involved matters.

Let’s hypothetically assume we have an 8-team playoff system this year. I’ve heard a lot of people say an 8-team playoff would fix everything because it would allow each conference to be represented – thus being a most-fair and equitable method of representing everyone. Then you make a two or three “wild card” type selection and give a shot to a team like this year’s Marshall with that 8^th spot.

Taking our hypothetical further using projections and current standings, this year’s 8-team playoff would look something like this (1-5 being automatic qualifiers):

1. Alabama (SEC Champ)
2. FSU (ACC Champ)
3. Oregon (PAC-12 champ)
4. TCU/Baylor?? (Big 12 Champ)
5. Ohio State (Big 10 Champ)
6. TCU/Baylor??? Wild Card #1
7. Mississippi State Wild Card #2
8. Marshall (or your pick form the “lesser 5”)

Personally, I think this a stupid idea. Not all conferences are created equally, and the teams don’t play one another. In fact, NOT ALL CONFERENCES EVEN HAVE A REAL CHAMPION. Lookin at you, Big 12 – whose motto ironically is “One True Champion.” Yea, really looking forward to the TCU/Baylor Co-Championship title under the “One True Champion” banner. God forbid you have a friggin championship game to settle it! I digress…

Part of the beauty of the way the committee is set up is also the very thing about it many of us hate as sports fans. The process, the criteria, the formula for picking the playoff teams is arbitrary. Based on some combination of who is the most “deserving,” who is the “best,” conference champion status, and the all-ambiguous “eye test.” It allows the flexibility to say “One-loss Bama/Oregon is better than undefeated FSU” while infuriating the Big 12 guys by saying, “Sorry, we just feel like Miss. St. is better than TCU/Baylor.”

And oh by the way, the opposite can be said about the NFL Playoff. A very deserving 2013 Arizona Cardinal team missed the playoffs last year because they didn’t win their division and the NFL just kind of ran out of spots. And yet, this year we may have another 7-9 or 8-8 squad (God I hope its not a 6-10 team) make the playoffs out of the NFC South.

Some of us like the NFL system because we know what our team has to do. The criteria is clearly defined. There are rules and the path to the playoffs is clear and practical. But we hate it when 7-9 teams host – and beat – good teams in the playoffs (remember Saints-Seahawks from a few years ago?).

So I guess what I’m advocating for here is some patience before we declare we must have an 8-team playoff to be happy. Let’s let this year play out and celebrate the fact that we won’t have to sit through an Alabama vs. Notre Dame thrashing/massacre/embarrassment/demolition again.

FINALLY… On to the picks. I went 8-1 last week. Thanks to Filler’s Steelers not being able to cover against the freaking Titans of all teams…

Overall Record: 47-26

Games I’m too chicken to bet on:

Jags (+14) at Indy

Bucs (+6) at Chicago

Cardinals (+7) at Seattle

Cowboys (-3.5) at New York

Jets (+3) at Buffalo (Detroit)

Rapid-Fire Reasoning:

• That spread is HUGE! But I think Luck is probably a little pissed after people have been dragging him through the mud all week after getting drubbed by Brday
• The Bucs are unpredictable with McCown returning to exact revenge at Chicago
• Seattle has underwhelmed, but I don’t believe in whoever Drew Stanton is
• Never bet on/against Eli Manning
• I guess the Bills are good? But they’re emotional with the snow? Or something? Or Michael Vick’s Jets are better than Geno Smith’s? I dunno…

Atlanta (-3) OVER Browns

The Browns can’t be good. The Browns can’t be good. The Browns can’t be good. The Browns can’t be good. The Browns can’t be good. The Browns can’t be good. The Browns can’t be good. The Browns can’t be good.

Titans (+11) OVER Philly

That spread is just one point too high. I’ve stated my rule about ten point spreads before. Almost always take the points. I still think the Titans suck. Just not as much sucky as I think they sucked before. Mettenberger wasn’t awful last week against Pittsburgh (minus throwing a pick-six with his first pass). I actually don’t think Sanchez is going to be terrible in Philly, but I don’t know that they’re two-TD’s better than Tennessee.

Lions (+7) OVER New England

I’m considering a separate bet where I take the Lions to win straight-up. The Money Line is (+260). You just gotta figure New England is in for a let-down game at some point. Not because they aren’t good, but because it’s the NFL and weird losses just happen. Also, the Lions aren’t bad. They have the best defense in the league.

Packers (-9.5) OVER Minnesota

Aaron Rodgers is quickly climbing up my man crush/MVP candidate ladder to supplant Andrew Luck on the top rung. They’ve been demolishing people. And the cold doesn’t bother a Green Bay team that plays in it all the team so the “road team” part of this doesn’t factor in too bad.

Houston (-1.5) OVER Bengals

This was a no-brainer for me, even with The Bengals winning in New Orleans last week. I think the Texans are just a flat-out better team than the Bengals right now, even if that hasn’t translated into their win/loss record. Mallet is going to make mistakes but he’s no worse than Andy Dalton – that’s for sure. Houston at home.

San Diego (-4.5) OVER Rams

The Rams just came off an emotional win versus Denver and I think they put all they had into it. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them get shredded on the road by Rivers and company. Also, Jeff Fisher is no longer starting my boy Austin Davis. And that makes me sad and angry.

Denver (-7) OVER Dolphins

I think Peyton Manning is angry. He’s going to remind us who he is this week at home against the overrated ‘Phins.

Redskins (+10) OVER San Francisco

Niners win, but not by more than a TD. Let’s remember that this same Niner team almost lost to the 5-INT throwing Eli Manning and the Giants last week. I’m still on the bandwagon that the Niners will look great at the end of the year and make a compelling playoff run, but until Kaepernick shows me some offense, I have a hard time believing they’re ten points better than Washington.

New Orleans (-3) OVER Ravens

Anyone else still on the Saints’ bandwagon!? Its uhh… it’s getting kinda lonely here on this wagon. Where is this wagon going? Did they seriously lose to the Bengals at home last week? I’m driving this wagon til the bitter end, even if I’m the last man on it.