Mr. Royal covers today with the last NFL divisional breakdown. Enjoy.
The Way Too Early NFL Playoff Predictions
Side Note: I suck and forgot to do the NFC South Preview. 1. NO 2. ATL 3. CAR 4. TB Speed version? Atlanta rebounds as Julio Jones vaults himself into the “best WR not-named Megatron” conversation, but yet another 5000+ yard year by Brees carries the Saints to another division title with Carolina taking a significant step back.
The picks up front! HOME team in caps.
NFC Wild Card Weekend: Packers over EAGLES, SAINTS over Niners
AFC Wild Card Weekend: COLTS over Steelers, Jets over BENGALS
NFC Divisional Round: SEAHAWKS over Packers in a thrilling rematch, Saints over BEARS making me very sad as the Bears have become sort of a second team of mine.
AFC Divisional Round: BRONCOS over Jets but Rex survives another season, PATRIOTS over Colts in a not-so thrilling rematch
Championships: Give me BRONCOS in a decisive victory over a Gronk-less New England (sound familiar?) and Saints over SEAHAWKS in OT.
Super Bowl: Peyton Manning avenges both 2013 and the last time he was in the Super Bowl before that against Brees and the Broncos win the whole thing by a TD.
But, why?
You know when you get that feeling that you’ve been wrong all along about the way you think something should be? Maybe it’s a political topic like legalizing pot or something as simple as wearing your seatbelt. Maybe that’s a crappy analogy, but you see the general trend of public opinion toward something and you realize that you’re suddenly on the wrong side of the fence – or at least the minority side of the fence?
That’s how I feel about passing versus running in football. If I was an NFL coach in a league of coaches building a team from scratch – full draft rounds 1-53. I would draft a good LT in the first, a DE in the second, a running back in the third, and a smart, mobile, durable QB who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes in the fourth (Russell Wilson/Kaepernick type). I would spend my FA bucks on a shutdown corner after struggling in the first few years and then we’d look to really contend. But we’d lead the league in running every year – that is for sure.
It’s my favorite way to see the game played. I love watching AP, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy (not you Shady McCoy because I detest the Eagles). I don’t much care for diva wideouts, outside of the top four or five guys I think the next ten QB’s are a dime a dozen, and I think all you need on defense is a pass rush in the front 7 (don’t care how you do it) and a CB (preferably two) who can play on an island. I’d run a Rex Ryan defense, a Seahawks offense, and a Patriot front office (ya know, without the cheating).
I’d bring in two tight ends, set up in the I, or load of the Weak/Strong side with a fullback and run it down your throat with a good push up front. Then when you load the box and blitz that safety I’m running play action and bombing it 40 yards down the field. That’s football according to Gabe Royal.
But I sit on my butt and blog for free though. I’m not running a front office or coaching a pro team. Though I’ve never tried, there’s probably a reason for that. And the prevailing thought in the NFL is this: Passing sells more tickets, moves the ball down the field faster, scores more points, and allows for more plays. And everybody is doing it.
In 2011, three quarterbacks threw for 5000+ yards – something that had been done by only two guys before that. Heck, Eli Manning threw for 4933 yards in a year that Peyton took off. And all we’ve done is made the rules even more favorable to the passer, the catcher, and told running backs they can’t lower their heads in a move that we used to call “protecting yourself.”
Peyton Manning shattered not one, but two passing records last year and while we were impressed, we knew that we would probably see those same, not-so longstanding records be broken again in our lifetimes. We saw him do it and we casually just asked ourselves, “Can he do it again?” Peyton didn’t shatter the ceiling of what we thought was possible, he just sort of set a new benchmark.
This strategy seems to be working and I’m increasingly beginning to wonder if guys like me have been living in the pre-Netflix world and we’re still renting from Blockbuster. Sure, the Seahawks did it without throwing the ball constantly, but they benefitted from having the most-dominant defense I’ve ever seen and a much underrated quarterback.
After watching a preseason where interceptions were overturned for flags that refs wouldn’t have even thought about reaching for five years ago, I’m beginning to think we’ve seen the last of those Richard Sherman Seahawks getting the benefit of the doubt. I think we’ll see three quarterbacks throw for 5000+ yards again this year (Brees, Manning, and Rodgers in that order). And I think the results will be a Broncos over Saints Super Bowl.