Mr. Royal covers today with your NFL picks for the week. Enjoy.
Week 6 Preview: Breakin’ All The Rules
Side Note: Let’s hope my picks turn out better than Filler’s CFB picks last week. Just kidding bud, they weren’t bad outside of the Stanford/ND and maybe the Auburn//LSU pick (psst… I would’ve taken Stanford even if the spread was ten, but don’t tell the readers). I’m terrible at college.
Side Note #2: Shout out to my boy Baxter (Yes Filler, I read all your stuff. Every word. I just keep coming back for the Kelly Cuocco pics). For the record, I hate the Pats but “AM I RIGHT OR AM I RIGHT!?” They CRUSHED Cincy. Game was over from the kickoff. Shoulda put a hundo on that spot.
Enough with the Side Notes…
Actual quote from me like, every week…
“Rule #3: Never bet on or against Eli Manning.”
Like I said, every time I start to rip the dude he makes me look bad and starts winning in impressive fashion. That and my emotional connection to the Giants is why I don’t bet on them. Too many variables. Let’s say I bet on them to cover the spread and they do, but still lose, I’m both happy and devastated. If they don’t cover, then I’m double-devastated. It’s just too much. I wanna love them with my heart, not my wallet.
But this week, I just can’t resist. Here’s another quote from my NFC East preview:
“Yes, Foles had great numbers last year. Insane numbers in fact. 64% completion, 27 TD’s against only 2 INT’s over 13 games… Basically, there’s no freaking way Foles repeats that efficiency.”
Here’s Foles numbers so far this year (gotta love the title of the article below him too):
Sub-60% passing. 3 picks over the last two weeks, more than he had all last year, relying heavily on the short pass (about 5.0 yards per completion).
Would you believe me if I told you after settling into a new offensive system, Eli Manning is 3-0 in his last three games with 8 TD’s against 1 INT with an average QBR of 87 pts?
And the QB matchup can’t be the only reason I’m breaking my rule this week to pick the G-Men, could it? Absolutely not. I’ve been burned by believing in the lesser Manning too soon before.
- The Eagles are hurting at inside linebacker. Mychal Kendricks is out and early reports show that it’s not looking good for Demeco Ryans.
- The Giants’ running game showed no signs of slowing up even without surprise feature-back Rashad Jennings
- Lesean McCoy is not playing well (2.9 yards a carry), and the Giants have limited him to an average of 46.3 yards in their last three meetings
- The Eagles defense is actually overrated. They benefit tremendously from Special Teams scores and big play turnovers (they’re currently 29th and 24th against the pass and run in terms of yards respectively). Call me crazy but I don’t know how long you can keep blocking punts in your opponent’s endzone for an easy six
But then it dawned on me. Maybe… just maybe we’re forgetting the biggest reason. Oh that’s right! We’re gambling! And the Eagles haven’t truly covered a spread all year. Watch this:
- Week 1: Jacksonville (DON’T YOU DARE TRY TO CONVINCE ME THIS COUNTS. JAX also hasn’t covered a spread all year.)
- Week 2: giving 2.5 to Indianapolis. Yea, Philly won by three. They also benefitted from a no-call defensive hold when they were down by 7 as Luck was driving the ball down their throats in the fourth which led to an INT, and then a bad call on what was NOT a horsecollar tackle, keeping their drive alive leading to an overtime-forcing TD. That’s a whole lot of weird stuff that had to go just right to keep them from losing by 14.
- Week 3: Eagles can’t cover 6.5 pts against the ‘Skins – still can’t believe Washington actually lost that game
- Week 4: Eagles +4 at San Fran (lose by 5, with three fluky defensive/Special Teams/how the hell did we make this game close??? type of TD’s)
- Week 5: Rams +7 at Philly (Win by 6). I still don’t understand why the Eagles didn’t win by 20.
What’s the point? This team was supposed to be really good. So their record (4-1) fits. But actually watch them play and then see the final scores of their games and it just boggles the mind. And who have they beat outside of Indy (FLUKE I say! Fluke!). Something doesn’t pass the eye test.
Or maybe I’m just a homer who can’t see past his own childish hopes that this Giants team doesn’t totally suck. Or maybe I just hate Philly. Wait… I absolutely hate Philly. Yup. Its pretty much just because I hate Philly.
Whatevs. Its Beat Philly Week. I’m taking the Giants (+2.5) at the Linc (which means Eli somehow heard me being positive and encouraging and will break my heart to toy with my emotions).
Ok. On to the picks. Games I’m too chicken to bet on:
Jags (+6) at Tennessee
Ravens (-3.5) at Tampa
Broncos (-9) at NY (Jets)
Panthers (+7) at Cincy
Chargers (-7.5) at Oakland
Cowboys (+8) at Seattle
Rapid-Fire reasoning:
- As soon as I want to create two new rules that the Titans/Jags can never be bet on to cover a spread ever ever ever ever EVER EVER EVER… they play each other in a game. This is going to be like watching a cripple fight. This game shouldn’t be allowed to have a winner #BortleService
- I think the Ravens are a feisty team that will punch you in the mouth if you’re not ready. Way better than I thought they’d be. Having said that, Mike Glennon might be a good bad QB, everybody. TB looks good. (I can’t believe I just said that)
- I dunno, I just need to know who’s playing. If Geno starts, I’d put money on the Broncos, if Vick starts I’d pick the Jets to cover and maybe even pull an upset. He’s that dynamic/bi-polar. It’s weird
- Cincy looked straight up bad last week and apparently AJ Green (aka most of Andy Dalton’s contract) might not play. But I still don’t know what to make of the Panthers who just beat another team I don’t know what to make of in Chicago
- Chargers always drop a dumb divisional game. This might be it, everyone’s talking them up and that spread is big
- I think Seattle exposes the Cowboys awful rush defense, but Romo will mount a garbage-time comeback and still lose. I just don’t know if it’ll be by 2 or 20.
Games I’m putting money on:
Giants (+2.5) over Philly (see above)
Colts (-3) over Houston
Joke spread. Come on Vegas. Make me at least think about Houston (+4) or something. Luck has 1600+ yards and 14 TDs right meow. I keep telling you guys, we’ll be hearing that MVP chant when Demarco Murray gets hurt
Minnesota (+2) over Lions
At first I thought Lions, and then I read that Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush might be sitting this one out, and Teddy Bridge over troubled Waters is actually playing. The Lions are hurting on the injury report real bad right now. If Johnson and Bush are active Sunday morning I’ll probably pull my bet and nix this one.
Patriots (-3) over Buffalo
I can’t take Kyle Orton/Buffalo Bills over Brady/Bellichick. It’s social suicide, football heresy, and just sounds weird coming out of your mouth. Pats win by 7.
Steelers (+2) over Cleveland
Is Spike mistaken? Aren’t you, the Browns? Spike don’t bet on the Browns!
They’re pretty good this year, Spike.
SPIKE DON’T CARE! Didn’t you hear!? Spike don’t bet on the Browns!!!
(Little Giants’ quote people, COME ON! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD5Z1AVzA5o)
P.S. God I miss the 90’s. BTW This is what the Icebox (the little butch football tomboy girl from Little Giants) looks like today:
WHAAA!?!?!?!?
Packers (-3.5) over Miami
R-E-L-A-X. Relax. Rodgers got this. Packers by 14.
Atlanta (-3) over Bears
I actually hope I’m wrong about this. The Bears are kind of like my second team for some reason. I can’t help but root for them, and I picked them to win that division and I hate being wrong about things. But my wallet is taking Matty Ice in the dome.
Redskins (+3.5) over Arizona
Drew Stanton and the Arizona Cardinals can’t possibly keep being good, right? RIGHT?! Please tell me that can’t be right! I haven’t given up on you Kirk Cousins. I know you throw a lot of picks, you look like a cartoon character, and your team is pretty bad but I actually liked what I saw against Seattle last week.
49ers (-3.5) over St. Louis and the OVER (44)
This pains me because I love Austin Davis. But the Niners just keep getting healthier and keep grinding out tough wins. They’re overdue for a cruising “W”.
Last Week against the spread (7-3)
2014 Overall against the spread (18-8)
… suck it Vegas