Mr. Royal covers today with your Sunday betting tips…
Week 3 Can’t Miss NFL Picks for the Degenerate Gambler
I’m back folks. I know I’ve been MIA. Sometimes the military does these stupid things that just uselessly suck days and weeks out of your life that you will never get back. I know you’ve missed my long-windedness, my funny ass jokes, and my propensity to use words that make me sound like a pretentious douche-nugget (kind of like the word “propensity”).
But the good news is this break has forced me to just sit back and watch the NFL the first two weeks, let the dust settle, and decide who’s for real and who’s pretending. Two weeks gone by, IT’S TIME TO START BETTING MY PAYCHECK AWAY!!!
Sure, the refs absolutely screwed me out of my Colts over Eagles pick last week by missing the only true defensive hold I’ve seen this season causing an Andrew Luck INT in the Red Zone and then inventing a horse collar tackle that didn’t happen so the Eagles could keep their drive alive and kick a game-winning field goal! But I’m not bitter. Not at all guys. Not a fu***** bit. But this week I’m off to a great start. My Falcons (-6.5) over Bucs pick went pretty well for me (and my Matt Ryan-led fantasy team) and I’m feeling good about my Week 3 picks already being up $20 (I put $20 down on all my bets unless I’m super-confident when I ratchet it up to $25 like a big shot).
Here’s how it’ll work: Each week I’ll make picks against the spread. But, I’m only picking games that I’d feel comfortable betting money on. Thus the “can’t miss picks” title (although I will inevitably lose all my money leading to full-blown degenerate status, leading to my wife kicking me out of the house, leading me to have to move in with Filler, leading to Lindsey kicking me out of the house…). That got dark quick!
Not betting on:
Ravens (-1.5) at Cleveland
Bears (+2.5) at NY Jets
Steelers (+3) at Carolina
Chiefs (+3.5) at Miami
Niners (-3) at Arizona
Cowboys (-1.5) at St. Louis
Redskins (+6) at Philly
Texans at NY Giants (pick)
Packers (+2.5) at Detroit
Rapid fire reasoning:
- What the hell is going on in Cleveland? I mean, are they good? Because they almost beat the Steelers in Week 1 (forced OT) and they beat my NFC Champ pick last week! Maybe the Steelers aren’t that good (which is why Baltimore obliterated them last week).
- The Bears’ 4th quarter is exciting because they looked like the team I thought they’d be for the first time this year. At the same time, why haven’t they looked like the team I thought they’d be this year? And is Geno Smith not terrible? Someone please explain to me how Geno Smith is not terrible?
- I almost took Carolina against Pittsburgh because the Steelers look so bad, but to be honest I only caught one of their games and it was the one where Cam didn’t start. So as much as I think “Yea duh, they’re better with Cam,” I like to see a guy play before I put money on em’.
- So wait, is Jamaal Charles like, OK? Because my fantasy team really needs him to be OK and not suck like he did in Week 1. And big thanks to Mike Wallace for being the guy I thought you could be this year when you’re not wasting space on my fantasy team and not last year when you were.
- Yea it’s early, but the fact that I’m not taking San Fran (-3) against Arizona says a lot about San Fran’s drop off
- So wait, the Cowboys defense is still bad right? Like, there’s no way they could be good right? Does 2+2 still = 4? Does E still = MC squared? Because if the Cowboys defense is anything but terrible then physics must no longer be a thing.
- Mmmkay so Kirk Cousins is not only a better quarterback than RGIII, he played really well last week (ignore who they were playing please and let me have this moment where I was right all along). And the Eagles should’ve been blown out by the Colts (should’ve bet on the refs (+200) to win that game). So yea, I could totally see the Skins covering, but I could also see them losing by 21 because Shady McCoy and the Skins are an awful football team.
- Hey is Eli still the Giants’ starter? OK then, yup. Not betting on any Giants game. This team could follow up a loss to the Raiders with a win against the Seahawks. Being a Giants fan is like playing roulette with your emotions. Oh wait! New Rule!!
Royal Degenerate Gambler’s Guide Rule #3: Never, ever bet on or against Eli Manning.
- So it took the best game of Jordy Nelson’s career and a [weird] called-back TD for the Pack to beat the Jets last week. And the Lions got crushed. Nope, not touching this one.
(Home team designated by city name)
Chargers (+2.5) over Buffalo
Antonio Gates is back! The Chargers not only beat Seattle, but they were firmly in control of that game. And maybe I’ve just convinced myself that Week 1 was a fluke everywhere in the NFL (because it was, seriously go back and look at the final scores). But I’m not going to knock Buffalo as a Good Bad team here. I just don’t believe in EJ Manuel. I still don’t believe the football gods would reward Buffalo for picking EJ Manuel 15th overall. I just can’t believe that, I won’t.
Vikings (+10) over New Orleans
This isn’t an overreaction to the Saints loss last week. They’re playing in the dome at home and they’re gonna be pretty pissed off. Having said that, let’s not overreact to the Vikings’ loss last week. They made a ton of mistakes. I think Simmons’ Ewing Theory kicks in a bit here and the Vikes play better without Peterson in the same way the Ravens did against Pittsburgh. I still think the Saints win though. But I can’t violate the Royal Degenerate Gambler’s Guide Rule #2:
When a spread is (+10) or more in the NFL, grab the points.
Colts (-7) over Jacksonville
http://youtube.com/watch?v=RDkxTobBJyc
Let me say this real slow, and real loud: The. Jags. Are. TERR-IB-LE!! Luck should’ve beat the Eagles by ten last week. What do you think he’ll do to Jax?
Raiders (+14) over New England
(See Royal Degenerate Gambler’s Guide Rule #2 above) Again, Pats win, but not by 15 or more. Wouldn’t be surprised if they won by 14 – I’ll take my money back. Also, will the real Tom Brady please stand up? No seriously, I’m trying to decide if I should drop you as my backup QB on my fantasy team. Jeez. Why did I pick a Patriot on my fantasy team? I’m more hypocritical than the Ravens…
Speaking of… Hell hath no fury like a woman-beater scorned http://deadspin.com/espn-rice-believes-ravens-owner-tried-to-bribe-him-in-1637019552
Side Note: The only way I can rationalize what’s been happening in the NFL these days is to come up with a conspiracy theory that is more reasonable than a world where owners and this Commissioner are this inept of basic leadership competency. It’s now become abundantly clear that the NFL only gives a shit about money. So what if – and stay with me here – Roger Goodell realized that the best thing to make the NFL even MORE money would be to have the Cowboys be relevant again. So Goodell calls up Jerry Jones and says, “Hey man, I here you’d love to have Adrian Peterson on your team. We so desperately want you guys to be good again. Just say the word and we’ll make it happen.” Then Goodell engineers the release of the second elevator video by paying TMZ to blast it across the interwebs, and then uncovers the Adrian Peterson child abuse photos he’d been covering up with the Wolf brothers so they’d both eventually be released. Who’s devoid of any soul, remorse, and moral compass and has the stones to pick up two disgraced players off of waivers? JERRY JONES! It’s actually kind of believable. Jones engineers a trade for Manziel, giving us a Manziel/Rice/AP trifecta in Big D!
I’m starting to think I should apply for the NFL Commissioner job. I’ve been Commissioner of my fantasy league for five years straight now and it seems like they’re letting just about anyone be NFL Commish these days.
Broncos (+4.5) over Seattle
Royal Degenerate Gambler’s Guide Rule #1 – Never, ever bet against Peyton Manning in a regular-season football game. The Broncos will win or lose by three. This ain’t 2013 and if you think Peyton is going to shy away from Richard Sherman after seeing that strategy fail in the Super Bowl and fail for Aaron Rodgers when Rivers threw the ball wherever he pleased and won, you’re crazy.
Cincinnati (-7) over Titans
I can’t shake the feeling that the Titans suck really hard. I haven’t watched any of their games yet because for some reason Cowboys-Titans and Titans-Chiefs just didn’t seem appealing to me on a Sunday afternoon. But I did watch the Bengals defense shut down a high-powered Falcons offense.