Mr. Royal’s time. Less distracted, higher quality. Enjoy.
FILLERBUSTER NOTE: How seriously do we LIVE during the time when college football is not being played? That is a serious question. How do we wake up and go through our day? I have had goosebumps for a couple days now. And glad that UVA beat the spread.
Preseason Preview: NFC West
I thought about going with a “Wild, Wild West” theme but that’s just too cliche. You know what!? Screw it!
I can’t remember the last time I saw a division as loaded as this one was last year. I almost started a petition to break up the NFC East in the late 2000’s to swap the Cowboys with one of the teams from the NFC South or West (it made sense geographically, the NFC East was loaded, and this division sucked). That NFC East wasn’t even close to this NFC West.
Disclaimer: I couldn’t find out whether or not these odds were re-done after the Bradford injury
Your LVH odds:
Seahawks:5-7
Niners: 8-5
Cardinals: 8-1
Rams: 15-1
But now to illustrate why I think this was the best division before Bradford went down:
Odds to win Super Bowl: Seahawks (1st), Niners (3rd), Cardinals (14th), Rams (19th)
Translation: The Seahawks may be favored to win the Super Bowl, but the Niners are also top-3 favorites and their worst team has about an average shot sans-starting QB.
Need more? Lets look at Vegas win over/unders:
Seahawks 11, Niners, 10.5, Cardinals 7.5, Rams 6.5
Those over/unders for the Cardinals/Rams likely factor in 0-4 records against the Seahawks and Niners. Remember, these guys have to play each other twice.Brutal. Especially in a division loaded with four very physical defenses.
4th Place: St. Louis Rams (5-11) Divisional Record (1-5)
Ugh. This pains me STL, it really does. Until Bradford went down last week, outside of my Bears pick I thought the Rams making the playoffs this year at 9-7 would be my boldest prediction. I wanted to declare this that weird Jeff Fisher year where his teams magically pull off a 10-win season, I really did. But when Bradford’s ACL gave out on him again I just don’t think a great defense is enough to overcome something like that in this division. I know Shaun Hill looks like an OK backup. I know Austin Davis looked great last week (against the Browns’ third-stringers). I know STL might even make a move for Cousins or Sanchez or Mallett (they won’t get any of them by the way). But I still don’t see any of those guys as a viable replacement to Bradford – who I thought took more criticism than he deserved – and I certainly don’t think any of those dudes (other than Sanchez) can manage your team to a winning record.
It’s too bad because there’s a lot to like here. Tavon Austin is as dynamic a player as there is in the NFL. The Rams are so deep at RB that Benny Cunningham and Tre Mason could actually beat out Zac Stacy (FANTASY NOTE: I’m probably the only guy in the world who picked up Benny Cunningham on the waiver wire last week… you heard it here, first people).
The Rams also have the best D-line in football outside of Houston. I thought Robert Quinn was going to shatter records last year and he still might do it this year. I hope the Rams get one of the big 3 QB’s (Mariotta, Hundley, Winston) next year and keep focusing on building a defensive juggernaut. This team could be very good in 2-3 years.
3rd Place: Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Divisional Record (2-4)
You never like to read too far into the preseason. But Carson Palmer looked pretty bad last week against Cincinatti. He missed a wide open receiver in the end zone on two plays in a row. And I mean, WIDE OPEN. Cincy coaches were looking around ready to bite someone’s head off because the guy was so open. But Arizona is very deep at receiver, Andre Ellington is a great back in space, and Arizona’s O-line is underrated. They’ve been dominating upfront in the preseason. They’re faster off the snap and they always seem to push the D-line back in run-block schemes.
I’m most-impressed with that defense though. The Cardinals were best in the league in rush-defense last year and Patrick Peterson is the second-best corner in the game (props to Richard Sherman, see below). Much like the Rams, the Cardinals suffer from a lack of consistency at QB and a difficult schedule on top six, very physical, divisional games.
2nd Place: San Francisco 49ers (10-6) Divisional Record (4-2)
Bottom line: This won’t be the same Niners team we’re used to seeing but it will get the job done for a Wild Card spot.
For starters, Bowman and Aldon Smith are huge losses. But as usual, the Niners are loaded at running back and they’re going to need it. Frank Gore is getting old and we all saw what happened to Marcus Lattimore’s knee. Still, Crabtree is an incredible possession receiver (or as Jim Harbaugh likes to say “one of the greatest catchers”) when healthy and Stevie Johnson adds some dangerous depth at receiver too. Time has shown that Vernon Davis isn’t Gronk or Jimmy Graham, but he and Julius Thomas are the most athletic tight ends in football after those guys.
What concerns me most about the Niners offense is actually Colin Kaepernick. I think we’re seeing a talented kid who may already be at his ceiling. He’s a hard worker, he’s got a great arm, but his maturity is questionable and I just think he is what he is. Which, for the record is great – he’s worth every penny they’re paying him. I’m just not tacking on a win or two factoring in some kind of obscure belief in his potential to get any better.
First Place: Seattle Seahawks (12-4) Divisional Record (5-1)
Lots of people will overreact to a Week 1 loss to Green Bay and say Seattle has a hangover, but they will bounce right back and win 12 of their next 15 on their way to another first-round BYE. There has been considerable attrition this offseason – which is to be expected after a high-profile Super Bowl run with all your underpaid players being showcased. I would be surprised to see Seattle’s defense be as dominant as it was last year (1st in pass defense, 7th in rush defense).
But let’s remember that Seattle’s best player is still there (Richard Sherman), they can still pay their awesome quarterback like a manager at Denny’s, and their best receiver is healthy (Percy Harvin). Although I’m not too high on Marshawn Lynch this year. He came into camp with the wrong attitude, he’s put a ton of miles on those legs, and Pete Carroll is a no-hesitance “next man up” type of guy. The most considerable losses came at almost every position defensively, but I don’t think it will be enough to make them two or more losses worse than they were last year.
Too consistent, too steady, too physical on defense. The only way this team doesn’t win 11+ games is if the NFL is actually serious about punishing DB’s for so much as grazing wideouts after 5 yards (the amount of penalties called this preseason has been unbearable).