THEY ARE LYING ABOUT CHRISTMAS
THEY ARE LYING ABOUT CHRISTMAS
By The Fillerbuster
The Cast 031118
They are lying to you about Christmas. In song, you hear a rumor about it. I have news for you. It is BS. More on that later.
March Madness is here. March and the first few days of April are the best parts of the year. It is time for some of you to suddenly need a crash course in college hoops. It is time to watch grown men cry and tear up their bracket at bars. It is time to pick your brackets. This blog is written in two parts. The first part was written on Saturday, March 10th. This part deals with MY rules on picking my bracket. Have I been the most successful? No. Do I pick a few too many upsets (with merit to the picks) that are wrong? Yup. But do I know some hoops? Yes.
The second part will be a 20 minute first thoughts on the initial release of the bracket Sunday night with my immediate thoughts to send you on your way.
First part.
RULES:
Whether you are a casual fan or a junkie like myself, I think it is easier to at least FEEL like you have a plan going into March Madness. The most knowledgeable person will still get beat in some pools by a woman who went by alphabet, favorite colors, and mascots to win it all. But, having a plan provides logic, and at least a few days of boldly and confidently holding your Sharpie and highlighter at the bar in pride. You feel like you had a plan. My plan isn’t perfect, but it isn’t bad either.
- Pick a coach you like respect and like to advance to the Final Four, but be hesitant before advancing that new coach to the title. Why? Because stats support that you need to BE in a Final Four as a coach before actually winning the next two games. Note: Mark Few’s first Final Four was last year.
- But, 4 of the top 5 paid coaches DO have titles, so pick a good one typically.
- Like a team? Well, advance them, but check the FT percentage of both shooting guard and point guard. Why? Because they WILL be in one close games, and they will need that charity stripe shooting down the stretch to hold off an opponent.
- Need a sleeper team? Look at the coach of that team. In today’s game, there are quite a few old school coaches leading different teams than the team that made them famous. Look out for those guys. Kruger, Pearl, Barnes, Sampson, Musselman, etc.
- I don’t think you need frontcourt scoring as you need frontcourt depth. There will most likely be a game with a higher foul count. A team that advances is a team with multiple subs in at the PF and center positions.
- You don’t need a “superstar,” but your team needs to know WHO the ball will go to when they need a last second bucket. You need someone with that trust. Make sure your title team has that option. UVA has no big time scorers on the team, but everyone knows when the game is on the line (aside from the open Hunter against Louisville), Kyle Guy or Devon Hall are probably getting the ball in one shot situations. And occasionally, Ty Jerome (when he feels like it). Wow, they have MULTIPLE go to players.
- Google (or in my case just pick up) the preseason mag rankings. Why? Because it is healthy to average what a team DID and match up with what a team was SUPPOSED to do healthy. They might have had some injuries, but were ridiculous on paper. These teams can rise to the top. For example, if Notre Dame DID make it, you would account for Colson’s return to at least two wins. They probably won’t make it, but just an example. Miami, Seton Hall, Florida, and Alabama are some of the forgotten GOOD teams on paper.
- Sometimes a player will rise above and take over a tournament. If you are in the dark on a matchup, but one team has a superstar, then think about advancing them. Take Alabama for this year as an example (Sexton).
- Do the bracket and don’t look at conference affiliation. Then, second guess your picks. Think about equilibrium and don’t get crazy. Over the years, the bigger conferences spread out pretty well. This year, I could definitely see two ACC teams in there at the end.
- I forget the exact stat, but I believe every team has had blue in its primary colors except one for the last ten years. The team who broke the trend was Louisville, but since that title is exempt now, technically this stat is something to think about.
- Look at how many single possession games a team has. Pushing their luck occasionally is fine, especially in road conference games. But, that pattern WILL catch up with them if they RELY on close wins.
- Yes, it is overdone in the media, but unfortunately backed by stats too. A 12 seed has advanced to the second round 9 of the last 10 years. TWO have advanced in 6 of the last 10 years.
- There have only been two years since 2000 when at least one Final Four team was a #1 seed.
- Nights WILL happen when the shots aren’t falling. So, if you are picking a team to advance that relies on shooting, maybe crosscheck those numbers with rebound differential numbers. Offensive rebounding is key on those nights.
- Have fun and pick a low seed to advance. Heck, picks LOTS of upsets. Just make sure your happiness of being right doesn’t overcome too much the preparation of being wrong and it going the boring way. They are seeded the way they are seeded for a reason.
- Hate the old school teams? Don’t. One of the following teams has advanced to the Final Four in 9 of the last 10 years: UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas.
- Seed #14 is on a run over the last few years in winning one game, especially since 2012 with Stephen F. Austin.
- Turnover differential is a big stat. Google it. Make sure your team takes care of the ball. This also typically reflects directly on the coach and team experience too.
- Stay away from at-large teams from large conferences with losing conference records.
- You need shooters. That sounds like it is stating the obvious, but stay with me here. You need MULTIPLE shooters. During the regular season, your main shooter can have a bad night, and you live to fight another day. You need six consecutive wins. One guy WILL have an off night. Make sure there is a second guy with range.
- Pretend you know the winner of the First Four so you have logic to how the rest of that area of the bracket will go. And know that one of those First Four MIGHT make some noise. One in each year since 2014 has won a game. The First Four these days are those dangerous big conference schools usually with par conference records.
- Mid-Major schools are adorable when picking them to the Final Four, but just know there is a very small chance of one of them advancing, and more of a slim chance you will guess the right one.
- High number of lost games. Check the strength of schedule before tossing that team over the bridge. Think about the fact that UNC has TEN losses, but they will be a 1 or 2 seed.
- Odds fall into line. Kids talent surfaces after rough starts. So, WHEN did this team peak this season? Off and to the right for the graph is optimal, even after a slow start is important.
- For what it is worth, whoever Jim Nantz covers for commentary usually makes it out of their region. You can’t predict where he will go of course before you hand your picks in, so this is more just informational and I ran across it in my brief research.
- Eighteen of the last nineteen champions came from the Eastern time zone.
- Looking at conference tourney results? Don’t judge them too much. Why? Because I can argue that a team that bows out is healthier and more rested, but let’s look at stats. In the last 18 years, 9 teams have won it all after winning their tournament. Not much of proof of anything, except that you are betting .500 IF you peg the correct conference winner. Looking closer, ALL teams since 1993 have at least made the conference tourney semi’s. So, don’t overact on conference winners, but make sure they didn’t have TOO much rest.
- Of course, on that last bullet point, UNC’s last four titles were with NO conference tourney wins, so take that and stuff it in your cap, or whatever that cliché is.
- IMPORTANT ONE: Look at WHERE they play. Years ago, they took the #1 and #2 seeds and started giving them the closest region to their home. And if in doubt on games not involving those teams, also look at whose fans will be at those games or any game for that matter. Coincidence happens, and lower seeded teams can get plopped somewhere close to campus.
- And as a bonus stat, five of the last six champions have been coached by someone whose first name was in the first half of the alphabet.
- Writing this before brackets were released, I believe my last picks had Michigan State,
- But know that ALL of these rules can be broken, and frequently are. I could pick last year’s bracket a million times. I didn’t see South Carolina doing anything significant.
- Wichita State, Virginia, and Arizona in the Final Four. I am wary of Wichita State, but am relatively comfortable with my blind (no matchups yet) picks overall (all written before bracket released).
- Use a system. Or don’t. Either way will drive you mad.
OTHER NCAA NOTES:
- Michigan is hot. I don’t think they have the package, but will buy that they are giving that school’s fans hope.
- I don’t have time to look up these stats, but I feel like the small conference tourneys had a lot of blowouts.
- Kevin Ollie was fired, and not only did he temporarily dim the flame at UCONN, he seemed to do his best to put it out. But, the dude DOES have a ring.
- Wonder where the “dance” term came from? Al McGuire said years ago that you have to wear your blue blazer when going to the Big Dance.
- Cleveland State, if they won, would have made the tourney with a 13-22 record. It didn’t happen, but that would have been bad.
- There are SO many teams near .500 in conference season play, and most of those teams did NOT make a run in the conference tourney, making things more confusing.
- Seriously, OU lost, OSU lost (after beating OU), Syracuse lost, Notre Dame lost but has Colson back, Nevada lost, Lousiville lost, Middle Tennessee State lost, Bama won a few games, Missouri lost but has Porter back now, etc.
- There will be no reasons for complaint though as they all dug their own hole. It will STILL be very confusing.
- Not sure WHY selling your house is so damn important in March, but the second weekend, I have to leave my house for THREE two hour plus periods for open houses because this is a “prime” time.
- The paint wasn’t even dry on their season, but Pitt started early by firing Kevin Stallings. I guess there is really NO argument on being 0-19 in conference play.
- For those of you who caught the UVA-Clemson game, Kyle Guy put to bed any fears he COULDN’T dunk (marginal one the game before) by REALLY dunking the ball in the game.
- If you have not seen the dunk in a close game by Jordan Davis, then you are missing out. Google his name and the word “dunk.” It will pop up.
- The UNC-Duke games this year were competitive, but really lacking that intangible things we love about the rivalry in my opinion.
- Arizona State went from being #1 in the nation to an afterthought, just in much quieter fashion than OU.
- Rick Pitino can say he wants to coach again, but can he at least wait until AFTER the tourney?
- I guess Jordan Barnett is betting his Tigers will NOT play in the First Four indicated by his 3:26am DWI?
- Providence got what they wanted against Nova, with a shot at the end of regulation to win. The better team usually rises up in OT.
- I love the shirts I noticed at the ACC Tourney for UVA. Embrace the Pace.
- Thank you, Grayson Allen, for giving us one more flagrant foul before you enter the tourney, hopefully lose early, and then probably play a season or two in the NBA before having to head overseas (hope).
Good read, people, in your preparation.
PRELIMINARY PICKS (SUNDAY NIGHT):
NOTE: My final picks will be released Wednesday morning. Note that I only have “one true” bracket, and typically pick an alternative bracket with UVA winning it all and everything else the same. This year is weird, as they will be a favorite. So, I will have two brackets, but probably the same all the way to the Final Four.
My immediate thoughts on the just released bracket:
- I hate UVA’s second round game (UK-Zona) but am happy with their #2 seed in the region.
- I think Michael Porter wins a couple of games alone.
- Gonzaga is a forgotten giant.
- I didn’t like Michigan as a trendy pick, but like their slot and now have them winning two games.
- I love UNC’s bracket until the region’s final game.
- Wichita State’s dumb losses cost them and now they will get Nova in the third round.
- I like New Mexico State’s draw against possibly two sub par ACC teams.
- Miami got handed a nice draw.
- I wouldn’t have Texas Tech winning two games, but they dropped them in freaking Dallas.
- Before you try and pick an upset against Michigan State, know that they dropped them in Detroit.
- I doubted KU’s depth, but their draw is pretty easy I think until the Elite 8.
- I think the Cuse will win a game just because people are mad they are even IN the thing.
- Same with OU. But mainly because I think Trae Young gives us ONE special performance.
- You will see the split UVA/Zona thing because I haven’t decided, but one of those teams will be in the Final Four.
- That is all I have time for as Lindsey wants to watch a movie. Email me directly for my thoughts and I will post final picks by Wednesday midday.
- Oh, and my personal tradition is that I fill out the bracket during commercials (on a legal pad) of the selection show as my first draft. So, here you go.
LINKS TO SAVE YOU TIME IN LIFE:
One more recent one:
https://deadspin.com/video-surfaces-of-odell-beckham-jr-enjoying-a-delightf-1823670594
Another recent one:
http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=22709023
And since Tiger Woods is back in contention these days, AND since I just saw Steel Panther Friday night (should have been all over that band a WHILE ago).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRV5RLp6L1Q
I am going to start networking my website with sports editors after March Madness, but please pass along my link to anyone who likes sports.
Once again, This And That drop down on my site houses the old school thoughts in one sentence style, and I have now added a TRUTHS dropdown, which you may find funny…items in life I have decided are truths…at least MY truths. Just like these rules.
And why the theme? Because Christmas gets props for being the most wonderful time of the year. I call that bluff. THIS is the most wonderful time of the year. Hands down.
That’s it for today. Hope you enjoyed or are at least more informed. Will I blog again? That is a CLOWN question, bro. Peace.
