We found Mr. Royal and he covers today with what you need to know about this week’s NFL games.

My Comeback (Oh, and Week 15 picks)

Yea, yea, yea I know I missed two weeks, I’m the worst blah blah. Life happens people.

Anyways, there were so many things I could do for today’s intro:

• Anthony Davis being amazing
• The Knicks being somehow worse than I thought they could possibly be (Why is Melo on the cover of ESPN the Magazine?)
• JJ Watt being amazing
• Aaron Rodgers being amazing
• The first College Football Playoff
• The inevitable Duke vs. Kentucky crash course
• The Derrick Rose saga
• The Heisman (it’s Mariota by the way)
• The evolution of our NFL off-the-field stuff

But I won’t do any of those things. This is a football intro, so all the b-ball stuff is out. I’ve gushed over JJ and Aaron before, CFP is still better than  BCS so I’m happy (can you imagine leaving Oregon out!?), the Heisman this year is kinda boring, and I’m tired of off the field stuff.

What I do want to talk about is replay and targeting. I can’t count on two hands how many times I’ve seen an awful roughing the passer, personal foul, or targeting call in the NFL this year. And look, this isn’t a rant from some guy trying to sound tough screaming “AHHH WHY DONCHA JUST PUT SKIRTS ON EM ALREADY!?” like Drunk Uncle (see below) or Loges doing his “drunk guy” voice. I’m not gonna rant about how the game is going down in flames and no one will watch football in ten years (have you seen the ratings?).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuduYMzY3Dc

I’m concerned because the rule not only makes the game harder to watch, it’s being enforced flat-out wrong – and ultimately, the impact of these calls has the potential to drastically change football games. Take last night’s Chargers-Patriots game and the awful call on Brandon Browner. Observe:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DLGeTLUkRE

(I apologize the quality isn’t top notch, but it doesn’t have to be. Their helmets DON’T touch.)

Now, in the context of that video, here’s the rule, straight from the book:

Here’s why Browner got called (and why this rule and the way it is enforced sucks so hard):

1. Criteria 1: If a player uses any part of his helmet… Browner passes. No helmet contact
2. Criteria 2: if a player illegally launches… and uses any part of his helmet… Browner passes.
3. Criteria 3: If in doubt about a roughness call or potentially dangerous tactics, the covering officials should ALWAYS CALL UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS. And that’s where he fails…

Umm… why? Why should they “always call unnecessary roughness” when in doubt? Why shouldn’t the rule state something like: “Officials should do their job and try real hard to get the call right”?

Browner is a bad boy DB with a rep for hard hits so he got called for a borderline play that’s un-reviewable.

Hey, speaking of… why is that unreviewable? I mean, it’s reviewable in college right?

Football “purists” will whine about how slow the game is getting and that replay is ruining everything and then give you a kind of “yada yada yada” like Elaine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=av64gOA9nXM

That’s bullshit. We review every scoring play. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. Even ones that are clearly TD’s are reviewed. Doesn’t that “slow down the game?”

I also hate the “well you can’t challenge a play.” Oh really:

• Too many men on the field
• Illegal forward pass

Next argument please.

It’s stupid that this is even an argument, but to illustrate the importance, let me give you some context of that game last night.

Two playoff teams playing in December. The team that’s down by one gets a turnover overturned, a TD taken off the board, gives up 15 yards, and their defense stays on the field. So a potential 14-point swing. No one is talking about it because the Pats wind up winning and seems a moot point. But it’s not. At least it shouldn’t be. It’s too easy to get it right – and that’s what officiating should be all about.

On to the picks:
Games I’m too chicken to bet on:

Cardinals (+3.5) at St. Louis

Dolphins (+8) at New England

Texans (+7) at Indy

Broncos (+4) at San Diego

Vikings (+7.5) at Detroit

Cowboys (+3.5) at Philly

• The Cardinals still manage to win with Stanton but St. Louis is on a TEAR defensively!
• Would’ve taken the Pats (-7)
• Wanna beat Andrew Luck? Hit him a lot and force him to force bad passes. JJ Watt is in town…
• Philip Rivers is amazing in December. But he’s playing Peyton Manning and I just don’t bet against him
• Would’ve taken Detroit (-7)
• I’m not positive Philly is as much better than the Cowboys as they were on Thanksgiving

The Can’t Miss Picks (I think)

Steelers (-2) over Atlanta

I just. I don’t… whaaa? Why is this spread so low? What the? I’m a being punked? Are Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell not playing or something? Seriously Filler help me out here because I’m about to bet my savings account on this one

New York (Giants ) (-7) Over Redskins

Trounced the Skins in Washington earlier in the year. Looks like Eli and ODB are getting on the same page more and more each week… OH yea, that’s right – the Redskins are awful too so there’s that. Here’s to Coughlin finishing strong and the Giants finishing 6-10 or 7-9 so he saves his job and we’re bad again next year.

Raiders (+10.5) over Kansas City

Saw an article that said, “Derek Carr has breakout game against 49ers.” Let’s calm down. Look, I think Carr is alright and he’s not the problem in Oakland, but let’s pump the brakes before declaring him “broken out.” Having said that, +10 point spread – takin the points.

Jags (+14) over Baltimore

I’m taking the points but I’m not happy about it. Let’s just move on before I throw this game into the “Too Chicken to Bet On” portion of the blog.

Packers (-7) over Buffalo:

I’m just gonna leave this here…

Carolina (-6) over Bucs

Remember when the Bucs were everyone’s sexy/dangerous/BOLD preseason playoff pick? HAHA how embarrassing for those idiots!

Speaking of…

Saints (-3) Over Chicago

My two underachieving sexy playoff picks facing off. There is no one left on my Saints bandwagon after last week. I’m going down with the ship out of pride at this point. I’ve given up on the Bears though. And both of these teams have been unbelievably awful at home for some weird reason I can’t figure out. Thus the Saints pick

Bengals (-2) over Cleveland

Brian Hoyer’s last four games… I’m just going to leave this here.

COMP-ATT-YDS-%-AVG-LONG-TD-INT-QBR-RATING

Jets (-1) Over Tennessee

Have I mentioned that I think the Titans are awful? Oh, I have… OK.

Niners (+10) over Seattle

FINALLY! I can make a new betting rule!

The Royal Guide to Degenerate Gambling Rule #5: Never lay big points in a rivalry game.

The Seahawks will bring out the absolute worst in these Niners. And I’m always fearful of a team that gets trashed all week off an embarrassing loss (see: Pats after losing to KC)